CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast
El Niño and La Niña, the southwestern monsoon, tropical storm activity, increasing temperatures, fire risk and weather, drought and snowpack, and dwindling reservoir storage all pose challenges to the Southwest. In the ‘Southwest Climate Podcast’, we focus on details and nuance, but (generally) avoid excessive technical jargon. Our goal is to synthesize information and data from experts, forecasts, and models to provide listeners with a better understanding of climate and weather in the Southwest, as well as the lessons we can learn from recent events and long term experiences.
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Episodes
Wednesday May 08, 2024
Wednesday May 08, 2024
It’s that time and we are 6 weeks away from the start of the 2024 monsoon season. In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins cover the end of the winter season, the transition month of April and give an early preview to the monsoon. Will the shift from El Niño to La Niña make for a dry or wet monsoon or active hurricane season? Will Zack break Mike’s eternal optimism with what the forecast models are saying? Listen in so you can be ready to play the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game!
Recorded: May 3, 2024
Aired: May 8, 2024
Mentions:
University of Arizona Cooperative Extension - Climate Sciences Applications
Climate.gov ENSO blog - “Untangling the winter 2023-24 precipitation forecast ball of yarn”
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
University of Arizona News - “Brace for a very active hurricane season this year, warn UArizona forecasters”
NWS - CPC North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Friday Apr 12, 2024
Friday Apr 12, 2024
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back at winter to share insights on the late-loaded precipitation, as well as current snowpack conditions and streamflow forecasts. The hosts discuss how El Niño played out as it starts its transition to La Niña and what to look out for this coming spring setting up this year’s monsoon season. And stay tuned for news on this year's Monsoon Fantasy competition on the next Pod!
Recorded: Friday, Mar 29, 2024 Aired: Tuesday, Apr 2, 2024
Tuesday Feb 20, 2024
Tuesday Feb 20, 2024
February 2024 SW Climate Podcast – El Niño’s Getting Late
It’s the new year and Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back to give the lowdown on what’s happening in regards to the Southwest Climate in this month’s Podcast. They cover this past winter’s three-month pattern and overall conditions. Then they get global with the current state of El Niño and its influence on atmospheric rivers and other precip events seen in the first half of February. There’s a quick look at the resulting snowpack - which is an important feature of the west’s water supply. And finally they round it out with a look to the rest of the month which may or may not be the rally we need for a typical wet El Niño before La Niña comes back around.
Mentions:
ENSO Blog: “February 2024 ENSO Outlook: All along the La Niña WATCH-tower”
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2024-enso-outlook-all-along-la-nina-watch-tower
Paper: “Observed Hydrologic Impacts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Salt and Verde River Basins of Arizona, United States”
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020778
National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service: Snow and Water Interactive Map
https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/snow-and-water-interactive-map
National Interagency Coordination Center: Fire Outlook
https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido
Michael Crimmins
Wednesday Dec 20, 2023
Wednesday Dec 20, 2023
December 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Special MailBag Episode
Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins sharpened their pencils, hit the library, and did their homework to bring you a very special MailBag episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast for this month. Thank you to all the listeners for sending in your questions and for trying to stump our hosts. This episode is not to be missed - so grab a cup of coffee and get ready to be schooled before heading off for the end of semester break. And have a Happy Holidays from the Southwest Climate Podcast crew!
Mentions:
Question 1: We are based in Northeast New Mexico in the I-25 corridor. What is the predominant drivers of summer weather and precipitation. Are we full-on monsoonal, more influenced by plains state weather patterns, or somewhere in between? Dan
The climate of the US Southwest, Sheppard et. al. 2002
Question 2: There seemed to be an abundance of DCAPE this season, which is perhaps related to all the strong winds and hail we had this monsoon. what is DCAPE? Sarah
Question 3: It seems that an albedo effect after a good snowpack tends to influence/add to a poor monsoon, to some degree, through delayed surface heating… Does that hold any water or stick to the wall? Mark
Observed Influence of Soil Moisture on the North American Monsoon: An Assessment Using the Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment Method, Wang et. al. 2021
Question 4: I’m wondering whether there’s a clear “global warming” signal yet in the monsoon? Sarah
Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network, Demaria et. al. 2019
Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming, Pascale et. al. 2017
Increasing Future Precipitation in the Southwestern US in the Summer and Its Contrasting Mechanism With Decreasing Precipitation in the Spring, Liang et. al. 2022
The North American Monsoon precipitation response to climate warming at convection-permitting scales, Wallace et. al. 2023
Future Land Precipitation Changes Over the North American Monsoon Region Using CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulations, Hernandez et. al. 2022
Question 5: We're wondering if anyone is studying whether climate change could eliminate the North American Monsoon as we know it and leave Arizona high and dry during the annual monsoon. Bruce & Joanna
Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation, Tierney (2nd) et. al. 2017
Question 6: Like many people in the Tucson area I'm engaged in a lot of outdoor activities, and during monsoon these activities get pushed further up the mountains for temperature reasons. One thing that is always a complicating factor is trying to read the weather pattern to determine whether we're going to get dumped on or caught in a storm. Some clouds pass right over without a peep, others seem to become a problem quite suddenly. Are there a few tips you can share for how to read the different monsoon clouds? Neal in Tucson
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido
Michael Crimmins
Thursday Nov 30, 2023
Thursday Nov 30, 2023
November 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Winter is Coming
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back from Thanksgiving to give a recap of November, which was not much to write home about. They start gearing us up for the next few months by taking a look back at previous winters and give a glimpse into this coming season as far as impacts, synoptic features, and large-scale drivers. The team rounds it out with a deep dive into El Niño and the complex forecasting that may or may not bring us some needed winter precipitation. Also - the monsoon is gone but not forgotten!
Last Call! The Southwest Climate Podcast is looking to do a special MailBag episode for the end of 2023! We are asking for listeners to send in their questions - Can be anything Southwest Climate related or try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at uaclimas@gmail.com.
Mentions:
U.S. Drought Monitor: Current Map - West
National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: Outlook
National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: North American Multi-Model Ensemble
USDA - NRCS: Map - Snow Water Equivalent
“Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow Over Past Centuries”
Climate.gov - ENSO Blog: “S(no)w pain, S(no)w gain: How does El Niño affect snowfall over North America?”
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Monday Oct 09, 2023
Monday Oct 09, 2023
Goodbye, adios, sayonara - In this month’s podcast, the crew is ready to put the 2023 monsoon in the rearview mirror. Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins give this year’s monsoon season recap and the only good thing to say is that ‘at least it was not 2020’ :( They cover what happened in September, review temperature and precipitation as well as the tropical storm season that prevented a full out non-soon. We also get to hear the results of the Monsoon Madness game winners and take a look forward to a strong-leaning El Niño coming this winter.
Attention! For the first time for the Southwest Climate Podcast we are requesting listeners to send in their questions for a special MailBag episode in December. Try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at uaclimas@gmail.com.
Mentions:
RainLog
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) Model
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido
Michael Crimmins
Tuesday Sep 05, 2023
Tuesday Sep 05, 2023
In wrapping up a double-punch storm here in August ‘23, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are here to deconstruct the current monsoon season. They discuss various analogs to this year, cover Hurricane Hilary that made its way up through the western U.S. as well as the potential for additional tropical storms to bring more precipitation to the Southwest. Lastly they end on their predictions for September and into winter. Good luck to all the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts participants out there!
Mentions:
Pima County Regional Flood Control District - Rainfall Map
RainLog
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
National Weather Service - Tucson: Monsoon
Climate Perspectives
@NWSPhoenix - Outflow Radar
Paper: “The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest United States”
CPC: 1 Month Outlook - Sept
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CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Wednesday Aug 02, 2023
Wednesday Aug 02, 2023
Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins bring you the July '23 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast to tease out what the heck is happening with this year's monsoon. They cover some of the record-breaking heat in July, look back at the historical record of past monsoons to find an analog to this year, weigh in on whether any or all can be attributed to the El Niño flex, and lay out their predictions for the Monsoon Fantasy game. They may not have any definitive answers, but at least you'll get an insightful look at this summer's puzzling monsoon.
Mentions:
Arizona Station-based Drought Tracker
Climate Perspectives
Eric Webb on Twitter @webberweather
North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School - ENSO Forecast
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Wednesday Jun 28, 2023
Wednesday Jun 28, 2023
If you aren't thinking about the 2023 Monsoon Season, this Kick Off episode for the June 2023 Southwest Climate Podcast is just what you need. Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are here to dive into the May / June review, a look at the current wildfire season, a brief chat about drought, then get into the recent Tex-Mex Heat Dome and dive right into the nitty gritty of the upcoming '23 Monsoon Season. They follow it up with an overview of the flex of El Niño, some hurricane looks - and last but not least - Monsoon Predictions.
If you haven't signed up for the Monsoon Fantasy game yet - This is your alarm clock! Forecasts for July must be cast by June 30 at 11:59 PM! Sign up today to play!
Mentions:
RainLog
Southwest Coordination Center (SWCC)
'Wavy' Jet Stream - Twitter
Monsoon Fantasy
["Generational" Count = 7]
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido
Michael Crimmins
Thursday Jun 08, 2023
Thursday Jun 08, 2023
Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back in the May 2023 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast where they are asking the real questions: Has it been a quiet spring? What was with that Monsoon-y Too Soon Maysoon? Why is it so hot in the Southwest? What are the models showing for the upcoming Monsoon season? And how come those models are throwing shade? Join the crew as they do a deep dive into the data to give their answers, explainers as well as a bit of the usual banter.
Mentions:
CoCoRaHS
RainLog
NOAA Blog: "May 2023 ENSO update: El Niño knocking on the door"
WMO: "Global temperatures set to reach new records in next five years"
James Hansen: "Global Temperature in 2022"
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido
Michael Crimmins