CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast
El Niño and La Niña, the southwestern monsoon, tropical storm activity, increasing temperatures, fire risk and weather, drought and snowpack, and dwindling reservoir storage all pose challenges to the Southwest. In the ‘Southwest Climate Podcast’, we focus on details and nuance, but (generally) avoid excessive technical jargon. Our goal is to synthesize information and data from experts, forecasts, and models to provide listeners with a better understanding of climate and weather in the Southwest, as well as the lessons we can learn from recent events and long term experiences.
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Episodes
2 hours ago
2 hours ago
Recorded 3/28/2025, Aired 4/1/2025
For this month's Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins deliver a fully robust episode. They review the abysmal winter season, breeze through our ‘meh’ March, cover the snowpack conditions and drought situation - which all could lead up to a potentially active fire hazard season. Stick around for the deep dive into the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and what to expect for the seasonal forecasts into the monsoon season.
Mentions:
Climate Science Applications Program - University of Arizona Cooperative Extension: Station Maps
USDA - NRCS: National Water and Climate Center Interactive Map
Paper: Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation”
NICC: National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook
U.S. Drought Monitor
PDO Paper: “A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production"
PDO Paper: “The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited”
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Seasonal Outlook Precipitation (JAS)
North American Multi-Model Ensemble: Seasonal Forecast Precipitation (JAS)
Tuesday Feb 18, 2025
Tuesday Feb 18, 2025
Recorded 2/14/2025, Aired 2/18/2025
It’s a new year and in this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are looking for good news. Zack gives a tour of recent statistics for the past few months and Mike goes over the related atmospheric happenings. They cover La Niña and the climatology of the Southwest during this winter season. Can we shake off this persistent dry spell and bring on a magnificent March? Lastly they cover the Santa Ana winds which played a part in the destructive L.A. fires and begin to delve into AI weather modeling and forecasting.
Mentions:
ENSO Blog: February 2025 La Niña update: La Niña today, gone tomorrow?
Paper: Changes in atmospheric rivers and moisture transport over the Northeast Pacific and western North America in response to ENSO diversity
Scripps: Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E)
Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC): Climate Perspectives - West
Paper: Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipitation in driving Santa Ana wind fires
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School - ENSO Plumes
Billy Idol - State Line: Live At The Hoover Dam
Tuesday Dec 10, 2024
Tuesday Dec 10, 2024
Recorded 12/06/2024
Aired 12/10/2024
In this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins slow-roll into the winter season. They look back on 2024 followed by what happened in November and why - including the Atmospheric River event on the west coast. They dive into a recent paper that interrogates the expected intensification of cool season precipitation in the west. And close out with a teaser look at the La Niña outlook and precipitation forecast with a highlight of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI).
Mentions:
Paper: “Anthropogenic Intensification of Cool-Season Precipitation Is Not Yet Detectable Across the Western United States”
ENSO Blog: “Can a little La Niña pack a big precipitation punch?”
Related Paper: “A Relative Sea Surface Temperature Index for Classifying ENSO Events in a Changing Climate”
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Tuesday Nov 05, 2024
Tuesday Nov 05, 2024
Recorded 11/1/2024
Aired 11/5/2024
The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are grateful that fall is (finally) here. In this month’s episode, they unpack the persistent heat that hung around through October as well as blocking patterns. They discuss the two major hurricanes that made landfall - Helene and Milton. And get into the current ENSO forecast which is pointing to a weak La Niña. Lastly, they dive into a couple papers as a way to think differently about ENSO and winter as they look ahead. Buckle up as it could be a wild ride!
Mentions:
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast
NOAA - CPC: El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
NOAA - ENSO Blog: Revisiting La Nina and winter snowfall
Climate.gov - ENSO Graphic: Typical late fall through early spring upper level jet stream positions associated with moderate to strong La Niña and El Niño events
NOAA - CPC - ENSO Graphic: North American Winter Features
Paper 1: Reinterpreting ENSO's Role in Modulating Impactful Precipitation Events in California
Paper 2: How Well Do Seasonal Climate Anomalies Match Expected El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Impacts?
NOAA - CPC: Three-Month Outlooks
Tuesday Sep 24, 2024
Tuesday Sep 24, 2024
Recorded 9/20/2024
Aired 9/24/2024
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack ‘Generational’ Guido and Mike “Dewpoint’ Crimmins break down what the heck happened to the second half of the monsoon this year. They unpack the recent Atlantic tropical activity, or lack thereof, as well as any hope for the Pacific to bring some moisture to the Southwest. They end with some coverage of the rest of September and a look into the early winter outlooks. This episode is not without controversy - so download / stream today!
Generational Count = 11
Mentions:
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries
NOAA Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS)
The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events
RainLog
CoCoRaHS
NOAA - CPC: Outlooks
NWS - Tucson: Avg Daily Dewpoint Tracker
IRI, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast
North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Tuesday Aug 20, 2024
Tuesday Aug 20, 2024
Recorded 8/16//2024
Aired 8/20/2024
Now that we are over halfway through the 2024 monsoon season, this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins don their chef hats and lay out the main ingredients of the monsoon. They give a recap of recent rain events, answer the question of whether or not the characteristics of convective storm dynamics have changed, and offer their thoughts on what is on the horizon for September. Great timing as 8/31 is your last chance to join in the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game this year!
Mentions:
RainLog
“Understanding the Dominant Sources and Tracks of Moisture for Summer Rainfall in the Southwest United States”
NWS - Tucson: Monsoon Tracker
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
"Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network"
"Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models"
NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game
AZ Central “Why is the monsoon so unpredictable? It takes a lot to make a good thunderstorm”
Tuesday Jul 23, 2024
Tuesday Jul 23, 2024
Recorded 7/19/2024
Aired 7/23/2024
Get ready for a big episode day as this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick off the monsoon season. The crew cover the evolution of the current monsoon phases from onset to where we are today with stats and analysis. And there is even a bit of a philosophical introspection on the data and sources (do you believe?). Your hosts share what they have learned along the way - but stick around to the end to get their hot take on what is coming next.
Also - It’s not too late to sign up for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game as there are monthly prizes this year!
Mentions:
Arizona Institute of Resilience - Power Forecasting Group
- Monsoon Forecasting Discussion Blog
- Contact to get on mailing list = Patrick Bunn, ptwbunn@arizona.edu
Map - Percent of Average Precipitation (AZ & NM)
RainLog
Climate Reference Network
Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
Tuesday Jun 11, 2024
Tuesday Jun 11, 2024
It’s June - which means in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins can officially talk about the monsoon. Before they deep dive into the 2024 monsoon season, they cover recent conditions from last month, the fire risk and its relationship to the monsoon, and then get right down to business. The stakes are high with a beer going to which host betters the other in v.4 of the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game this year (sign up today).
Recorded: Friday, June 7, 2024
Aired: Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Mentions:
Southwest Coordination Center - Outlooks
National Interagency Coordination Center - Outlooks
Drought.gov - Soil Moisture
North American Multi-Model Ensemble
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center
Tropical Tidbits - GFS Forecast Model
Wednesday May 22, 2024
Wednesday May 22, 2024
Welcome to this special episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast with guest hosts: Gigi Owen & Christina Greene. In this special episode, we bring you 3 guests that were all part of the CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellowship program over the past year. A lot of the science that CLIMAS researchers do is done collaboratively with and for our community partners so that the science that we do ends up being useful to decision-making and policy development and planning. Our Fellowship program offers University of Arizona graduate students the opportunity to take this kind of collaborative approach to address environmental and societal problems. Our fellows are here today to share more about their work and what they've been up to over the past year.
2023 CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellows
Hannah Friedrich
“Mapping tarps and stories to spotlight inequitable disaster recovery”
Majerle Lister
“Re-Thinking Land and History: Working with Navajo Mountain Soil Water Conservation District Members”
Lucas Belury
“Flood Justice in South Texas”
Talia Anderson *Unable to attend podcast recording
“What's going on with the rains?”
Wednesday May 08, 2024
Wednesday May 08, 2024
It’s that time and we are 6 weeks away from the start of the 2024 monsoon season. In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins cover the end of the winter season, the transition month of April and give an early preview to the monsoon. Will the shift from El Niño to La Niña make for a dry or wet monsoon or active hurricane season? Will Zack break Mike’s eternal optimism with what the forecast models are saying? Listen in so you can be ready to play the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game!
Recorded: May 3, 2024
Aired: May 8, 2024
Mentions:
University of Arizona Cooperative Extension - Climate Sciences Applications
Climate.gov ENSO blog - “Untangling the winter 2023-24 precipitation forecast ball of yarn”
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
University of Arizona News - “Brace for a very active hurricane season this year, warn UArizona forecasters”
NWS - CPC North American Multi-Model Ensemble