CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast
El Niño and La Niña, the southwestern monsoon, tropical storm activity, increasing temperatures, fire risk and weather, drought and snowpack, and dwindling reservoir storage all pose challenges to the Southwest. In the ‘Southwest Climate Podcast’, we focus on details and nuance, but (generally) avoid excessive technical jargon. Our goal is to synthesize information and data from experts, forecasts, and models to provide listeners with a better understanding of climate and weather in the Southwest, as well as the lessons we can learn from recent events and long term experiences.
Listen on:
Episodes
Tuesday Nov 05, 2024
Tuesday Nov 05, 2024
Recorded 11/1/2024
Aired 11/5/2024
The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are grateful that fall is (finally) here. In this month’s episode, they unpack the persistent heat that hung around through October as well as blocking patterns. They discuss the two major hurricanes that made landfall - Helene and Milton. And get into the current ENSO forecast which is pointing to a weak La Niña. Lastly, they dive into a couple papers as a way to think differently about ENSO and winter as they look ahead. Buckle up as it could be a wild ride!
Mentions:
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast
NOAA - CPC: El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
NOAA - ENSO Blog: Revisiting La Nina and winter snowfall
Climate.gov - ENSO Graphic: Typical late fall through early spring upper level jet stream positions associated with moderate to strong La Niña and El Niño events
NOAA - CPC - ENSO Graphic: North American Winter Features
Paper 1: Reinterpreting ENSO's Role in Modulating Impactful Precipitation Events in California
Paper 2: How Well Do Seasonal Climate Anomalies Match Expected El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Impacts?
NOAA - CPC: Three-Month Outlooks
Tuesday Sep 24, 2024
Tuesday Sep 24, 2024
Recorded 9/20/2024
Aired 9/24/2024
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack ‘Generational’ Guido and Mike “Dewpoint’ Crimmins break down what the heck happened to the second half of the monsoon this year. They unpack the recent Atlantic tropical activity, or lack thereof, as well as any hope for the Pacific to bring some moisture to the Southwest. They end with some coverage of the rest of September and a look into the early winter outlooks. This episode is not without controversy - so download / stream today!
Generational Count = 11
Mentions:
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries
NOAA Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS)
The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events
RainLog
CoCoRaHS
NOAA - CPC: Outlooks
NWS - Tucson: Avg Daily Dewpoint Tracker
IRI, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast
North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Tuesday Aug 20, 2024
Tuesday Aug 20, 2024
Recorded 8/16//2024
Aired 8/20/2024
Now that we are over halfway through the 2024 monsoon season, this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins don their chef hats and lay out the main ingredients of the monsoon. They give a recap of recent rain events, answer the question of whether or not the characteristics of convective storm dynamics have changed, and offer their thoughts on what is on the horizon for September. Great timing as 8/31 is your last chance to join in the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game this year!
Mentions:
RainLog
“Understanding the Dominant Sources and Tracks of Moisture for Summer Rainfall in the Southwest United States”
NWS - Tucson: Monsoon Tracker
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
"Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network"
"Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models"
NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game
AZ Central “Why is the monsoon so unpredictable? It takes a lot to make a good thunderstorm”
Tuesday Jul 23, 2024
Tuesday Jul 23, 2024
Recorded 7/19/2024
Aired 7/23/2024
Get ready for a big episode day as this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick off the monsoon season. The crew cover the evolution of the current monsoon phases from onset to where we are today with stats and analysis. And there is even a bit of a philosophical introspection on the data and sources (do you believe?). Your hosts share what they have learned along the way - but stick around to the end to get their hot take on what is coming next.
Also - It’s not too late to sign up for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game as there are monthly prizes this year!
Mentions:
Arizona Institute of Resilience - Power Forecasting Group
- Monsoon Forecasting Discussion Blog
- Contact to get on mailing list = Patrick Bunn, ptwbunn@arizona.edu
Map - Percent of Average Precipitation (AZ & NM)
RainLog
Climate Reference Network
Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
Tuesday Jun 11, 2024
Tuesday Jun 11, 2024
It’s June - which means in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins can officially talk about the monsoon. Before they deep dive into the 2024 monsoon season, they cover recent conditions from last month, the fire risk and its relationship to the monsoon, and then get right down to business. The stakes are high with a beer going to which host betters the other in v.4 of the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game this year (sign up today).
Recorded: Friday, June 7, 2024
Aired: Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Mentions:
Southwest Coordination Center - Outlooks
National Interagency Coordination Center - Outlooks
Drought.gov - Soil Moisture
North American Multi-Model Ensemble
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center
Tropical Tidbits - GFS Forecast Model
Wednesday May 22, 2024
Wednesday May 22, 2024
Welcome to this special episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast with guest hosts: Gigi Owen & Christina Greene. In this special episode, we bring you 3 guests that were all part of the CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellowship program over the past year. A lot of the science that CLIMAS researchers do is done collaboratively with and for our community partners so that the science that we do ends up being useful to decision-making and policy development and planning. Our Fellowship program offers University of Arizona graduate students the opportunity to take this kind of collaborative approach to address environmental and societal problems. Our fellows are here today to share more about their work and what they've been up to over the past year.
2023 CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellows
Hannah Friedrich
“Mapping tarps and stories to spotlight inequitable disaster recovery”
Majerle Lister
“Re-Thinking Land and History: Working with Navajo Mountain Soil Water Conservation District Members”
Lucas Belury
“Flood Justice in South Texas”
Talia Anderson *Unable to attend podcast recording
“What's going on with the rains?”
Wednesday May 08, 2024
Wednesday May 08, 2024
It’s that time and we are 6 weeks away from the start of the 2024 monsoon season. In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins cover the end of the winter season, the transition month of April and give an early preview to the monsoon. Will the shift from El Niño to La Niña make for a dry or wet monsoon or active hurricane season? Will Zack break Mike’s eternal optimism with what the forecast models are saying? Listen in so you can be ready to play the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game!
Recorded: May 3, 2024
Aired: May 8, 2024
Mentions:
University of Arizona Cooperative Extension - Climate Sciences Applications
Climate.gov ENSO blog - “Untangling the winter 2023-24 precipitation forecast ball of yarn”
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
University of Arizona News - “Brace for a very active hurricane season this year, warn UArizona forecasters”
NWS - CPC North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Friday Apr 12, 2024
Friday Apr 12, 2024
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back at winter to share insights on the late-loaded precipitation, as well as current snowpack conditions and streamflow forecasts. The hosts discuss how El Niño played out as it starts its transition to La Niña and what to look out for this coming spring setting up this year’s monsoon season. And stay tuned for news on this year's Monsoon Fantasy competition on the next Pod!
Recorded: Friday, Mar 29, 2024 Aired: Tuesday, Apr 2, 2024
Tuesday Feb 20, 2024
Tuesday Feb 20, 2024
February 2024 SW Climate Podcast – El Niño’s Getting Late
It’s the new year and Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back to give the lowdown on what’s happening in regards to the Southwest Climate in this month’s Podcast. They cover this past winter’s three-month pattern and overall conditions. Then they get global with the current state of El Niño and its influence on atmospheric rivers and other precip events seen in the first half of February. There’s a quick look at the resulting snowpack - which is an important feature of the west’s water supply. And finally they round it out with a look to the rest of the month which may or may not be the rally we need for a typical wet El Niño before La Niña comes back around.
Mentions:
ENSO Blog: “February 2024 ENSO Outlook: All along the La Niña WATCH-tower”
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2024-enso-outlook-all-along-la-nina-watch-tower
Paper: “Observed Hydrologic Impacts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Salt and Verde River Basins of Arizona, United States”
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020778
National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service: Snow and Water Interactive Map
https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/snow-and-water-interactive-map
National Interagency Coordination Center: Fire Outlook
https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido
Michael Crimmins
Wednesday Dec 20, 2023
Wednesday Dec 20, 2023
December 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Special MailBag Episode
Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins sharpened their pencils, hit the library, and did their homework to bring you a very special MailBag episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast for this month. Thank you to all the listeners for sending in your questions and for trying to stump our hosts. This episode is not to be missed - so grab a cup of coffee and get ready to be schooled before heading off for the end of semester break. And have a Happy Holidays from the Southwest Climate Podcast crew!
Mentions:
Question 1: We are based in Northeast New Mexico in the I-25 corridor. What is the predominant drivers of summer weather and precipitation. Are we full-on monsoonal, more influenced by plains state weather patterns, or somewhere in between? Dan
The climate of the US Southwest, Sheppard et. al. 2002
Question 2: There seemed to be an abundance of DCAPE this season, which is perhaps related to all the strong winds and hail we had this monsoon. what is DCAPE? Sarah
Question 3: It seems that an albedo effect after a good snowpack tends to influence/add to a poor monsoon, to some degree, through delayed surface heating… Does that hold any water or stick to the wall? Mark
Observed Influence of Soil Moisture on the North American Monsoon: An Assessment Using the Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment Method, Wang et. al. 2021
Question 4: I’m wondering whether there’s a clear “global warming” signal yet in the monsoon? Sarah
Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network, Demaria et. al. 2019
Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming, Pascale et. al. 2017
Increasing Future Precipitation in the Southwestern US in the Summer and Its Contrasting Mechanism With Decreasing Precipitation in the Spring, Liang et. al. 2022
The North American Monsoon precipitation response to climate warming at convection-permitting scales, Wallace et. al. 2023
Future Land Precipitation Changes Over the North American Monsoon Region Using CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulations, Hernandez et. al. 2022
Question 5: We're wondering if anyone is studying whether climate change could eliminate the North American Monsoon as we know it and leave Arizona high and dry during the annual monsoon. Bruce & Joanna
Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation, Tierney (2nd) et. al. 2017
Question 6: Like many people in the Tucson area I'm engaged in a lot of outdoor activities, and during monsoon these activities get pushed further up the mountains for temperature reasons. One thing that is always a complicating factor is trying to read the weather pattern to determine whether we're going to get dumped on or caught in a storm. Some clouds pass right over without a peep, others seem to become a problem quite suddenly. Are there a few tips you can share for how to read the different monsoon clouds? Neal in Tucson
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido
Michael Crimmins