CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast

Recorded 11/07/2025, Aired 11/10/2025
Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are enjoying the recent fall weather in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast episode.  The hosts recap October which had some pretty interesting storm activity.  There is a summary of the hurricane season - including the category 5 Melissa that had devastating impacts in the Caribbean.  They cover the fall to winter transition patterns.  Then the podcast ends with a discussion on the weak developing La Niña which may or may not relieve the drought pressure with some winter precipitation.  
 
Mentions:
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Forecasts
Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries
Video - Hurricane Hunters pass through the eye of Melissa
NOAA - National Hurricane Center
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO
National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): JFM Precipitation
***If you receive an error message on any of the NOAA websites, try using an incognito browser window
 

Recorded 10/03/2025, Aired 10/06/2025
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick it off by saying goodbye to the monsoon.  They do a recap of the season with a focus on last month's rain events.  September was interesting to say the least - this leads to a philosophical discussion on whether it is the same flavor as the rest of the monsoon.  The hosts tie up the episode with what’s on the horizon for this coming winter & the ENSO forecast.  
 
Mentions:
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries
Monsoon Precipitation Totals with Rankings 2025
NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center
NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

August 2025 SW Climate Podcast - At Wits End
Recorded 8/29/2025, Aired 9/2/2025
We are over two-thirds of the way through this year’s monsoon and in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins have a bit of a therapy session. They do a round up of July and August which they call the most uninteresting monsoon. There is a deep dive on what is driving this picture of night and day between Arizona and New Mexico.  They give a look towards September with all eyes on the eastern Pacific tropical activity as the wildcard.  They eventually learn to appreciate the subtleties and accept their relationship with the Southwest Monsoon. 
 
Mentions:
Monsoon Season Station Climate Summaries
Paper: Dominant patterns of US warm season precipitation variability in a fine resolution observational record, with focus on the southwest
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
University of Arizona's Weather Research and Forecasting Model (UA WRF)
SW US Monsoon Precipitation Mapping - Past Seasons
NOAA - NWS: Climate Prediction Center

Recorded 07/23/2025, Aired 07/24/2025
Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast focus on the current unusual monsoon for the entire episode.  All the ingredients are there - but it is not your typical season.  They cover the southwesterly flow, what the heck is going on with the four corners high, and the low that’s been sitting off the coast of California.  They dive into a recent rain event that was attributed to a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) and how the monsoon has done so far across Arizona and New Mexico which is a tale of 2 states.  Lastly, hear how the hosts are doing on their predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game.  
You can still play if you haven’t signed up yet.  August Predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game are due next Thursday 7/31 before midnight - See if you can beat Mike this next month!
 
Mentions:
NWS - Tucson: Dewpoint Tracker
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): August Precipitation
TropicalTidbits: GFS Model

Recorded 06/24/2025, Aired 06/26/2025
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast we are in the final countdown to the monsoon.  To get us started, host Zack Guido quizzes host Mike Crimmins on his climatology knowledge.  They then cover this past month’s heat ramp up, take a walk down monsoon history over the past few seasons, and look at past conditions as a precursor to get the monsoon party started.  Then close out with our current conditions and what the forecasts are saying.  Will the tropical storm activity be this year’s wildcard?!?
Don’t forget to sign up and make your predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game.  Forecasts for July must be entered by June 30 at 11:59 PM.
 
Mentions:
Paper: “Is the North American monsoon self-limiting?”
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
30 Day-ish Climate Tracking for Southwest U.S.
2025 Hurricane Forecast by Xubin Zeng and Kyle Davis - University of Arizona
NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Season Forecasts
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
International Multi Model Ensemble 
ECMWF: Run AI models yourself from ECMWF open data

Recorded 5/16/2025, Aired 05/20/2025
The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are ready to start counting down the days to this year’s monsoon season.  But before they get into the monsoon preview - they do a final winter recap and review April and May’s weather patterns.  They also cover the fire season so far, and Mike gets to share on his upcoming paper “Changing Climate, Changing Fire: Understanding Ecosystem-Specific Fire-Climate Dynamics in Arizona and New Mexico”.
Stick around for the monsoon discussion at the end so you can be informed - or at least entertained - in time for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game starting next month! 
 
Mentions:
Paper: “Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation”
National Interagency Coordination Center - National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: 3 Month Seasonal Outlook
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) - Precipitation Forecast
AZ State Climate Office Monthly Webinar Series - NWS Tucson Presentation: 2025 Monsoon Outlook
International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME) - Precipitation Forecast

Recorded 3/28/2025, Aired 4/1/2025
For this month's Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins deliver a fully robust episode.  They review the abysmal winter season, breeze through our ‘meh’ March, cover the snowpack conditions and drought situation - which all could lead up to a potentially active fire hazard season.  Stick around for the deep dive into the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and what to expect for the seasonal forecasts into the monsoon season.   
 
Mentions:
Climate Science Applications Program - University of Arizona Cooperative Extension: Station Maps
USDA - NRCS: National Water and Climate Center Interactive Map
Paper: Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation”
NICC: National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook
U.S. Drought Monitor
PDO Paper: “A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production"
PDO Paper: “The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited”
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Seasonal Outlook Precipitation (JAS)
North American Multi-Model Ensemble: Seasonal Forecast Precipitation (JAS)

Recorded 2/14/2025, Aired 2/18/2025
It’s a new year and in this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are looking for good news.  Zack gives a tour of recent statistics for the past few months and Mike goes over the related atmospheric happenings.  They cover La Niña and the climatology of the Southwest during this winter season.  Can we shake off this persistent dry spell and bring on a magnificent March?  Lastly they cover the Santa Ana winds which played a part in the destructive L.A. fires and begin to delve into AI weather modeling and forecasting.
 
Mentions:
ENSO Blog: February 2025 La Niña update: La Niña today, gone tomorrow? 
Paper: Changes in atmospheric rivers and moisture transport over the Northeast Pacific and western North America in response to ENSO diversity
Scripps: Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E)
Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC): Climate Perspectives - West
Paper: Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipitation in driving Santa Ana wind fires
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School - ENSO Plumes
Billy Idol - State Line: Live At The Hoover Dam

Recorded 12/06/2024
Aired 12/10/2024
 
In this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins slow-roll into the winter season.  They look back on 2024 followed by what happened in November and why - including the Atmospheric River event on the west coast.  They dive into a recent paper that interrogates the expected intensification of cool season precipitation in the west.  And close out with a teaser look at the La Niña outlook and precipitation forecast with a highlight of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI).  
 
Mentions:
Paper: “Anthropogenic Intensification of Cool-Season Precipitation Is Not Yet Detectable Across the Western United States”  
ENSO Blog: “Can a little La Niña pack a big precipitation punch?”
Related Paper: “A Relative Sea Surface Temperature Index for Classifying ENSO Events in a Changing Climate”
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

Recorded 11/1/2024
Aired 11/5/2024
The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are grateful that fall is (finally) here.  In this month’s episode, they unpack the persistent heat that hung around through October as well as blocking patterns.  They discuss the two major hurricanes that made landfall - Helene and Milton.  And get into the current ENSO forecast which is pointing to a weak La Niña.  Lastly, they dive into a couple papers as a way to think differently about ENSO and winter as they look ahead.  Buckle up as it could be a wild ride!
 
Mentions:
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast
NOAA - CPC:  El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
NOAA - ENSO Blog: Revisiting La Nina and winter snowfall
Climate.gov - ENSO Graphic: Typical late fall through early spring upper level jet stream positions associated with moderate to strong La Niña and El Niño events
NOAA - CPC - ENSO Graphic: North American Winter Features
Paper 1: Reinterpreting ENSO's Role in Modulating Impactful Precipitation Events in California
Paper 2: How Well Do Seasonal Climate Anomalies Match Expected El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Impacts?
NOAA - CPC:  Three-Month Outlooks