CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast
El Niño and La Niña, the southwestern monsoon, tropical storm activity, increasing temperatures, fire risk and weather, drought and snowpack, and dwindling reservoir storage all pose challenges to the Southwest. In the ‘Southwest Climate Podcast’, we focus on details and nuance, but (generally) avoid excessive technical jargon. Our goal is to synthesize information and data from experts, forecasts, and models to provide listeners with a better understanding of climate and weather in the Southwest, as well as the lessons we can learn from recent events and long term experiences.
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Episodes
Wednesday Nov 23, 2016
Wednesday Nov 23, 2016
In the November edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a range of topics, including:
A recap the last month of weather in the Southwest (including our hot and dry October and what the first half of November brought),
A look back at the water year (Oct 1 2015 - Sep 30 2016) to discuss how the Southwest fared, and what this perspective lends to our understanding of SW climate,
A look forward to La Niña - what the models are saying, as well as what these patterns might mean for winter in the Southwest.
Monday Oct 10, 2016
Monday Oct 10, 2016
In this episode of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the Southwestern monsoon, with an eye towards how various regions of the Southwest fared in terms of storm events and seasonal totals. They also discuss the different events that contribute to seasonal totals during the official monsoon (June 15 - Sept 30), as well as what some of the best case and worst case monsoon totals might look like in a thought experiment regarding monsoon extremes. They close out with a brief discussion of La Niña (or the lack thereof), and a look towards what fall and winter might have in store given the current (uncertain) conditions.
Tuesday Aug 23, 2016
Tuesday Aug 23, 2016
In the August episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the monsoon in the Southwest. They recap the monsoon, they discuss the components that factor into monsoon precipitation patterns and the high degree of spatial and temporal variability of that precipitation, and the way the monsoon can fade or surge as the official season winds down, depending on how the season progresses (and how much tropical storm activity contributes to the seasonal total).
Note: In what should probably be a running disclaimer for the duration of the monsoon, given the variability and unpredictability of monsoon precipitation, this podcast was recorded prior to the storms that rolled into SW Arizona in the last few days. The most salient point is that Tacna is no longer at 0.00 inches for the monsoon (as Mike mentioned in the podcast). As with last month, we'd like to take credit for the uptick in a region we called out, since these storms have a habit of popping up just after we finish recording (see last two months!), but such is the inherent spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon - if it were easier to track and forecast, it wouldn't be so exciting.
Monday Aug 01, 2016
Monday Aug 01, 2016
Note: this podcast was recorded just prior to the run of storms that fired up in late July, so while Mike and Zack hint at the upcoming storms and moisture (most models were pointed towards an uptick in monsoon activity, their discussion does not cover this latest run of storms (we'll save a discussion of this event for the next podcast). We'd like to take credit for the increased monsoon activity, since these storms have a habit of popping up just after we finish recording (see last month!), but such is the inherent spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon - if it were easier to track and forecast, it wouldn't be so exciting.
In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the monsoon in the Southwest, focusing on the big events that closed out June, and the relatively long "break" that followed for much of July. After such a strong start, this extended break was especially disappointing. They also track the building conditions that point towards an uptick in activity (that has since come to fruition) and highlight how the inherent variability of monsoon activity (and the various components that go into the monsoon) make it so difficult to forecast a few days in advance, much less at a seasonal time scale.
Note 2: Mike wants to assure listeners that it has rained (quite a lot) at his house, and as such, he is in a much better mood.
Thursday Jun 30, 2016
Thursday Jun 30, 2016
In the June 2016 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at May and June to discuss the relatively mild weather of May, the near-record heat in June, and the transition into the monsoon. In the second half of the podcast, they dive into the weeds on monsoon climatology and the variable spatial and temporal patterns that characterize the monsoon in the Southwest. They highlight what we might expect in the next 90 days, along with a discussion of the difficulty of creating regional monsoon season forecasts (given the high degree of spatial and temporal variability, and the randomness of weather).
Please note: we recorded this podcast prior to the run of storms that hit the Southwest in the last week of June. Most of the podcast is focused on a recap of past events, or evergreen discussions of climatological features of the monsoon in the Southwest, but there are a few references to potential monsoon activity and building storms that refer to (at the time of recording) forecasts and possible future conditions or events that have already come to pass, or have even exceeded normal/expectations.
Monday May 23, 2016
Monday May 23, 2016
In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a side range of topics related to weather and climate in the Southwest, including:
The transition from winter into spring so far with a recap of weather over the past month, including the recent run of milder and wetter weather than we might expect in a normally dry period,
A deeper dive on the ongoing disappointment that was El Niño, by looking closely at a preliminary analysis (Levine & McPhaden, below), and what it begins to tell us in diagnosing what happened with El Niño
An exploration of the wildfire risk potential for this year, and how recent years compare, going back to the 2011 fire season, and
An early start to discussing the monsoon, partly because the season is closer than we might think, but also as a way to divert attention from what Zack is calling the "doom season" (hot and dry conditions leading up to the monsoon).
Online Resources
How the July 2014 Easterly Wind Burst Gave the 2015-6 El Niño a Head Start - Aaron F. Z. Levine & Michael J. McPhaden
Arctic Oscillation Analysis and Forecasts April 21, 2016
Monday Apr 11, 2016
Monday Apr 11, 2016
In the early April edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at our exceptional El Niño event, which may be standing out for all the wrong reasons - especially in the Southwest. They discuss the anomalously warm and dry conditions the Southwest has experienced since early January; and put these conditions into context regarding our expectations in a strong El Niño year, what might be driving these patterns (and the moisture away from us), and just where that moisture has gone. They also discuss the similarities of the current precipitation pattern to La Niña (i.e. dry in the Southwest and wet in the Northwest) but highlight how this event is very different from La Niña associated atmospheric patterns (even if the precipitation patterns feel like a La Niña year). They also point out that while we're not in a La Niña yet..but forecasts call for much higher chances of a swing to La Niña by fall of this year. They also look forward to the rest of the spring, including the last gasp of moisture the second week of April, and what this underwhelming El Niño might mean for regional drought, snowpack, and wildfire conditions.
We'll be back near the end of April with another podcast episode that takes a more comprehensive look at just how this El Niño event compared to expectations (models and forecasts), and what we've learned from this event.
Friday Feb 26, 2016
Friday Feb 26, 2016
In the February episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back, and he and Mike Crimmins sit down to talk, you guessed it, El Niño. They recap what we've seen over the past month, and take a closer look at whether this El Niño event is actually underperforming, whether expectations were set too high going into the season (Godzilla, etc.), and what we might expect for the upcoming month if we can ever break out of this high pressure system.
Tuesday Feb 02, 2016
Tuesday Feb 02, 2016
In the January 2016 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan** recap the transitional weather patterns of the last few months of 2015 as we moved from Fall into Winter, and discuss whether this transitional season matched general expectations, given what is expected in an El Niño year. They also discuss what a characteristic southwestern winter pattern looks like, and conclude the podcast with a conversation about how this El Niño event has stacked up so far this winter, and what they anticipate over the next few months.
*We had a small technical difficulty with the audio quality that delayed publication until today, but the conversation is still timely/relevant especially considering the general break in winter storm activity we've seen since early January (Jan 31 notwithstanding).
**Zack Guido is away on a research project but will join us again in February.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan
Michael Crimmins
Tuesday Dec 15, 2015
Tuesday Dec 15, 2015
In the December episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the difficulty of characterizing a climate phenomenon (in this case El Niño) on a weather time scale, which is made difficult by the highly variable transition season we see in the Southwest in October and November. This difficulty is especially salient as media, the general public, and climate scientists are all hungry for explanations as to whether day to day events fit into larger climate patterns (i.e. is this an El NIño related impact or not!?). They also go over the recent events of October, November, and early December, before looking forward at what the seasonal forecasts suggest is likely in store for this Winter (hint: all signs still point to a wetter than average winter!).