CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast
El Niño and La Niña, the southwestern monsoon, tropical storm activity, increasing temperatures, fire risk and weather, drought and snowpack, and dwindling reservoir storage all pose challenges to the Southwest. In the ‘Southwest Climate Podcast’, we focus on details and nuance, but (generally) avoid excessive technical jargon. Our goal is to synthesize information and data from experts, forecasts, and models to provide listeners with a better understanding of climate and weather in the Southwest, as well as the lessons we can learn from recent events and long term experiences.
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Episodes
Friday Mar 15, 2019
Friday Mar 15, 2019
In the March 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido reflect on the winter so far, including the "frigid" temperatures and "exceptional" precipitation. They also contextualize the winter by looking at the last 5 years - mostly warmer and drier - vs. climatology -- considering what a normal winter might actually look like in the Southwest. They also discuss snowpack across the west, and consider how widespread this winter activity has been within the West. In addition to a brief detour into the state of El Niño and possible implications, they also revisit Zack's ski trip to slightly snowy Montana (instead of overwhelmingly snowed in Tahoe), and sum up the state of the precipitation bet for Jan-Feb-Mar (in case you missed it, Feb precipitation blew up the totals). They also have a new bet - whether we'll see enough precipitation between now and May 31 to reach top 8 wettest status (Zack's bet) or whether we'll stay in the 8th-14th wettest range (Mike's call).
January
February
March
Total
Zack
1.25
0.75
0.9
2.9
Mike
1.5
1.0
0.3
2.8
Climatology
0.94
0.86
0.73
2.53
Actual
1.09
2.03
0.62 (as of Mar 15)
3.74 (as of Mar 15)
Thursday Jan 31, 2019
Thursday Jan 31, 2019
In the January 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast - Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido embrace our winter and talk through how the Southwest is performing over the last 30-90 days (including a recap of snow so far). They also dive into the Polar Vortex, and talk through the factors that drive its appearance, and what it means for the rest of the country (as well as the Southwest). They also take a brief detour to take a closer look at forecast snow totals across the West, in Zack's (hopefully successful) bid to predict good snow for an upcoming ski trip. They wrap up with a discussion of El Niño (or the possible lack thereof) and talk about what factors might be limiting the development of a more decisive El Niño event - including the Madden Julian Oscillation. (They also recap where they stand in the J-F-M precip 'bet', although they both realize some flaws in their predictions from last month).
Thursday Dec 20, 2018
Thursday Dec 20, 2018
In the December edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido talk about the flip between our wetter/cooler October, and the drier conditions in November, as well as December so far. Next they dive into the snow - in a discussion of snow climatology in the Southwest, as well as a recent paper about declining snow in the western U.S by some of our colleagues in the Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences. Finally, they talk about the outlook for the next three months (Jan-Feb-Mar) and come up with a new bet tracking the monthly and cumulative totals. Play along at home, or send us your guesses before January gets too far along, and we'll see how you stack up against our "experts".
January
February
March
Total
Zack
1.25
0.75
0.9
2.9
Mike
1.5
1.0
0.3
2.8
Climatology
0.94
0.86
0.73
2.53
Monday Nov 26, 2018
Monday Nov 26, 2018
In part 2 of the November 2018 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido dive into El Niño in the Southwest. They discuss the current state of the science, what the forecasts have to say about El Niño, and what climatology can tell us about our expectations for an El Niño event in the Southwest.
Production note: Travel schedules prevented us from recording a podcast in October, but Mike and Zack clearly had some pent-up perspectives on SW Climate, so the podcast ran a bit long. We decided to release the podcast in two parts - the first part covers the monsoon, Oct/Nov weather & climate, and wildfire in the Southwest, while this part (part 2) covers El Niño in the Southwest (science, seasonal outlooks, and climatology).
Wednesday Nov 21, 2018
Wednesday Nov 21, 2018
In the November 2018 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido give a brief recap of the monsoon rankings for 2018, to compare seasonal totals, and to see if a bit of hindsight adds anything to our assessment of the monsoon this year. Next they dive into October conditions in the Southwest (precipitation and temperature), and discuss the role that the Pacific tropical storm season played in these events, and the impacts that season had at a regional scale. They finish with a discussion of wildfire, with an eye towards what is happening in California right now.
Production note: Travel schedules prevented us from recording a podcast in October, but Mike and Zack clearly had some pent-up perspectives on SW Climate, so the podcast ran a bit long. We decided to release the podcast in two parts - the first part covers the topics mentioned above (Monsoon, October/Nov weather & climate, wildfire in the Southwest), while part 2 (to be released early next week) will cover El Niño and the seasonal outlooks for the Southwest).
Tuesday Sep 25, 2018
Tuesday Sep 25, 2018
In the September 2018 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at the monsoon and talk about how the monsoon fired up and unfolded, some pretty impressive rain totals in the Southwest, and who might have been left out at times. There are technically still a few days left in the monsoon, but during the 'transition' season of September, it takes some pretty special circumstances (or a tropical storm!) to bring widespread precipitation to the region. Conveniently, this just happened, so they talk about this event (on/around Sept 19) as well as the weather events of the last month and the monsoon precipitation totals (to date). They wrap up with a discussion of "the bet" and preview next month's podcast when they'll dive back into ENSO and the possible-to-likely El Niño that's been brewing for a few months now.
Wednesday Aug 22, 2018
Wednesday Aug 22, 2018
In the August edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the monsoon in the Southwest this year. They focus on how it compares to past events and long term averages, and discuss the spatial and temporal variability of the storms that occur during the monsoon (i.e. did it rain at your house or not?). As part of their regional roundup, they talk about why (really how) Phoenix has been hogging more monsoon events than usual, and make note of the untapped potential in other parts of the Southwest, where conditions have been ripe for widespread monsoon activity, but has not seen the kind of 'epic' monsoon that Zack (and much of central Tucson) was hoping for. Mike reminds us that over the longer term it eventually evens out, although this is limited comfort for those who are on the losing (i.e. dry) end of the range of monsoon precipitation to date. The bet for the monsoon total had Zack guessing 5.75" and Mike at 7.5" (and Ben wins if they both go over). The Tucson Airport is currently sitting at 4.81”…which means Zack might be in the driver’s seat as it needs to hit 6.63 for Mike to win. The peak period of monsoon activity is starting to wind down, but tropical storms that veer back into the Southwest are still on the table, so we'll wait and see.
Thursday Jul 12, 2018
Thursday Jul 12, 2018
The Monsoon is back! In the July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido kick off with a recap of the role that Hurricane Bud played in driving storms and moisture into the Southwest on June 15-16, with a focus on the tropical moisture incursion that occurred during the transitional season. They even take a moment to discuss whether that event was the monsoon, or just - in Mike's words ' "monsoon-y". Next, they turn to the onset of the actual monsoon in terms of a few different metrics (precipitation, dewpoint, precipitable water), the atmospheric patterns that affect this onset, and how this shift has affected recent temperatures, wildfire season, and where and how precipitation is falling. They briefly discuss El Niño, as well as the seasonal outlooks that forecast a relatively rosy picture (i.e. wet) for Arizona and parts of New Mexico over the next few weeks and months.
They also settle on their friendly wager for this month - how many days in July will have "measurable precipitation" at the Tucson Airport, and what will be the July total. Mike guessed 10 days with rain and 3.5 inches, while Zack guessed 12 days with rain and 4 inches (as a note: as of July 11, the count stands at 4 days and 1.33 inches). Last month's bet was for the highest recorded temperature in June - Mike won with a guess of 109 (Zack guessed 110), while the actual value was 107.
Finally, regarding their guesses for the entire monsoon - Zack guessed 5.75" and Mike 7.5" for the Jun 15 - Sept 30 window. The current value is 1.61" (as of July 12) which is a bit ahead of average, but was augmented by the non-quite-monsoon activity July 15-16.
Friday Jun 08, 2018
Friday Jun 08, 2018
In the June 2018 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to dive into their favorite season. The monsoon is on the horizon, which leads to considerable excitement. First, they recap temperature and precipitation in the region, and talk about how this connects to the fire season so far. They turn to the monsoon outlooks and forecasts, with a close look at what these forecasts are saying, but how much certainty we have (or don't have) in monsoon seasonal forecasts. Zack then makes his case for the miracle monsoon - a mash up of different months of monsoons past - for what his ideal monsoon would look like (think fantasy football for monsoon monthly totals). They wrap up with a look at the seasonal forecasts - and focus on how ENSO connects to expectations for tropical storms, the monsoon forecast, and seasonal outlooks, even if the signal is relatively weak this time of year.
In what is becoming a monthly contest, there's a friendly wager (or 2!) on the line. This month, Zack and Mike report on the results of their May podcast bet, guessing how many days over 100 we'll see in Tucson in May. The 30-year average is 4 - Mike guessed 7, and Zack went big with 9 - tune in to the podcast to hear who won. For the June podcast, they put their best guess as to the maximum temperature we'll see in Tucson in June. The record maximum in June is 117 (and the lowest high temp recorded in June was 107) - Mike guessed 109, and Zack guessed 110. they also put forth their monsoon guesses - with Zack at 5.75" and Mike at 7.5' for the Jun 15 - Sept 30 window. We'll see!
Wednesday May 16, 2018
Wednesday May 16, 2018
In the May 2018 edition of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss May's weather and climate, especially the windy conditions that seem to fire up every year around this time, and the role that plays in wildfire season. They also discuss the precipitation history of the past year, reflecting on the low precipitation totals across most of the Southwest, but how concentrated the rain events were in Southern Arizona (July during last the monsoon, and a good run of storms in February). This leads them to a discussion of drought in the region, which they discuss in terms of recent conditions, how this compares to other droughts in the past 20 years, and the data and information drought experts use to monitor regional drought conditions.
As per usual, there's a friendly wager on the line. Zack "won" last month’s bet guessing the first day over 100 degrees in May (in 2018, it was May 6). In this episode they guess how many days over 100 we'll see in Tucson in May. The 30-year average is 4 - Mike guessed 7, and Zack went big with 9 - we'll see who won in the June 2018 SW Climate Podcast.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido