CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast
El Niño and La Niña, the southwestern monsoon, tropical storm activity, increasing temperatures, fire risk and weather, drought and snowpack, and dwindling reservoir storage all pose challenges to the Southwest. In the ‘Southwest Climate Podcast’, we focus on details and nuance, but (generally) avoid excessive technical jargon. Our goal is to synthesize information and data from experts, forecasts, and models to provide listeners with a better understanding of climate and weather in the Southwest, as well as the lessons we can learn from recent events and long term experiences.
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Episodes
Wednesday Nov 27, 2019
Wednesday Nov 27, 2019
In the Nov 2019 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan sit down to talk through recent storm activity in the Southwest after a month-plus pause in the rain for much of the region during October. Fear not, Zack Guido will be back with us soon, but you'll have to listen to the podcast to hear why (hint: he has a pretty good excuse). With the rain finally falling in the Southwest as November is coming to a close, we wanted to get a quick mini-pod out there before the Thanksgiving holiday, and we'll be back sometime in December to take a closer look at what has been going on in the Southwest's weather and climate, and what the winter may have in store.
As a note, this was recorded the week of Nov 18, when a series of storms had started rolling through the Southwest, but the mechanism for these storms is relatively similar to that of the week of Nov 25 (i.e. when this podcast is finally coming out).
Tuesday Oct 08, 2019
Tuesday Oct 08, 2019
In the Oct 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the monsoon that was - or in many places, wasn't. They discuss the monsoon overall (from June 15 - Sept 30), as well as recent September precipitation related to tropical storm activity and cut-off lows, to play the annual "is this monsoon or not?" game. They also think through how these events can juice seasonal totals, and take a closer look at the climatology of events (i.e. tropical storms) that supplement precipitation totals during the June 15 - Sept 30 monsoon period, and they consider how seasonal statistics might play out if we used a more restrictive definition for monsoon days and associated rainfall totals. The figures below are what they discuss at the end of the podcast (iTunes and Android podcast listeners, visit https://www.climas.arizona.edu/podcast/oct-2019-southwest-climate-podcast-conservation-misery-and-lapse-rate-doping-edition to see these maps)
Tuesday Aug 27, 2019
Tuesday Aug 27, 2019
In the August 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido deconstruct the monsoon to-date (or the Non-Soon as some are calling it). They take a look at the regional precipitation patterns, how 2019 compares to recent years, and how far back we have to look to find a monsoon that is as dry as this one, with implications for drought as well as regional temperatures. They also look forward to the next 4-5 weeks to see if there's any chance to catch up (not likely) or at least finish strong (a bit better chance of that). They also discuss the monsoon fantasy bets, realizing that it might be a bit more fun if it was raining more - but the upshot is for round 2, Zack beat Mike by a cumulative score of 145 to 143 (but noting that a score of 300 would have meant an "average" monthly total for the 3 stations they picked).
Monday Aug 12, 2019
Monday Aug 12, 2019
In the this "mini" episode (the Aug 2019 SW Climate Podcast Monsoon Mini) - Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido deconstruct the relative lack of monsoon activity across much of the region, as well as to discuss a few places that are receiving more precipitation than expected (looking at you Ajo). They recap some of the totals through Aug 7 and dive into the mechanics that have been driving this (relative lack of) activity. They also check the 1-2 week forecasts to see whether there is any hope for recovery in the latter half of the monsoon.
Note 1: This was recorded on Aug 7, before the last round of activity (Aug 10 in particular in Tucson).
Note 2: Zack and Mike huddled around our secondary recording option because Ben is on a fieldwork stint in Louisiana (but still managed to edit the podcast remotely), such is all of their dedication to the podcast! The sound quality is mostly ok; however, the quality of the podcast content is exactly what you'd expect! We'll go back to our normal routine for the next podcast, when everyone is back in the same room.
Friday Jul 05, 2019
Friday Jul 05, 2019
Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido are back "early" (unlike the monsoon) for a special mini-podcast focused on the onset of the monsoon. They discuss some of the recent conditions and how they almost saw rain last week (or did, if you were in Vail, AZ or parts of NM), and consider 1) Has the monsoon started? 2) Why/Why-not? and 3) What data helps inform a perspective on monsoon onset (along with what this might mean for the rest of the season). This doesn't include monthly recaps or other regional overviews and information, and is meant to capture some of the week-to-week changes in the monsoon based on what is happening (or is not happening). They'll be back with the typical monthly podcast whenever summer schedules bring everyone into the same room.
Monday Jun 17, 2019
Monday Jun 17, 2019
In the June edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the astonishingly good run of weather the Southwest experienced in May. This busted their bet game of how many 100 degree days in May (there were zero! - Mike bet 2, Zack bet 5-6) but they'll take that loss every year if they could. They also discuss what this has meant for drought, snowpack, streamflow, and fire risk, and compare monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns with long term averages. They finish with an extended preview of the monsoon, including a discussion about how difficult it can be to predict the exact onset of the monsoon, despite a pretty regular start date, as well as the challenge of forecasting intensity given how variable the monsoon can be.
They also run down some friendly wagers on monsoon totals (June 15 - Sept 30) - with Mike (not surprisingly) picking climatology (6.1 inches), Zack going bullish at 110% of average, and Ben veering pessimist at 75% of average. They also introduce a new "fantasy monsoon" game that splits the season into 3 periods for them to pick stations in the Southwest they think might over-perform compared to climatology. For the June 15 - July 15 period, Mike picked Douglas, Nogales, and Gila Hot Springs, and Zack picked Organ Pipe, Kitt Peak, and Tucson. Next month they'll recap their first period scores, and pick 3 new stations for the middle period of the monsoon. Tune into the podcast for details (and we'll include running totals on the CLIMAS website and in the SW Climate Outlook each month).
Wednesday May 01, 2019
Wednesday May 01, 2019
In the April 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the winter that (really) was for most of the Southwest, as well as more recent conditions that have favored Arizona over New Mexico. They also connect late fall and winter precipitation events to current and ongoing issues in the Southwest, including drought and reservoir storage and the status of lakes Mead and Powell, pollen and allergies this spring, and wildfire risk heading into the summer. They wrap up with a discussion of current and projected El Niño conditions, as well as what impact these conditions might have on tropical storm activity and the timing of the monsoon.
Regarding the bet: Zack won the Jan-Feb-Mar precip bet with a guess of 2.9 inches (compared to Mike's 2.8) but both were admittedly pretty far off from the actual total of 3.74 (climatology was 2.53). The next bet is for the number of 100 degree days in May and June. Tune in to hear their guesses and send us your own.
Friday Mar 15, 2019
Friday Mar 15, 2019
In the March 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido reflect on the winter so far, including the "frigid" temperatures and "exceptional" precipitation. They also contextualize the winter by looking at the last 5 years - mostly warmer and drier - vs. climatology -- considering what a normal winter might actually look like in the Southwest. They also discuss snowpack across the west, and consider how widespread this winter activity has been within the West. In addition to a brief detour into the state of El Niño and possible implications, they also revisit Zack's ski trip to slightly snowy Montana (instead of overwhelmingly snowed in Tahoe), and sum up the state of the precipitation bet for Jan-Feb-Mar (in case you missed it, Feb precipitation blew up the totals). They also have a new bet - whether we'll see enough precipitation between now and May 31 to reach top 8 wettest status (Zack's bet) or whether we'll stay in the 8th-14th wettest range (Mike's call).
January
February
March
Total
Zack
1.25
0.75
0.9
2.9
Mike
1.5
1.0
0.3
2.8
Climatology
0.94
0.86
0.73
2.53
Actual
1.09
2.03
0.62 (as of Mar 15)
3.74 (as of Mar 15)
Thursday Jan 31, 2019
Thursday Jan 31, 2019
In the January 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast - Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido embrace our winter and talk through how the Southwest is performing over the last 30-90 days (including a recap of snow so far). They also dive into the Polar Vortex, and talk through the factors that drive its appearance, and what it means for the rest of the country (as well as the Southwest). They also take a brief detour to take a closer look at forecast snow totals across the West, in Zack's (hopefully successful) bid to predict good snow for an upcoming ski trip. They wrap up with a discussion of El Niño (or the possible lack thereof) and talk about what factors might be limiting the development of a more decisive El Niño event - including the Madden Julian Oscillation. (They also recap where they stand in the J-F-M precip 'bet', although they both realize some flaws in their predictions from last month).
Thursday Dec 20, 2018
Thursday Dec 20, 2018
In the December edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido talk about the flip between our wetter/cooler October, and the drier conditions in November, as well as December so far. Next they dive into the snow - in a discussion of snow climatology in the Southwest, as well as a recent paper about declining snow in the western U.S by some of our colleagues in the Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences. Finally, they talk about the outlook for the next three months (Jan-Feb-Mar) and come up with a new bet tracking the monthly and cumulative totals. Play along at home, or send us your guesses before January gets too far along, and we'll see how you stack up against our "experts".
January
February
March
Total
Zack
1.25
0.75
0.9
2.9
Mike
1.5
1.0
0.3
2.8
Climatology
0.94
0.86
0.73
2.53