CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast
El Niño and La Niña, the southwestern monsoon, tropical storm activity, increasing temperatures, fire risk and weather, drought and snowpack, and dwindling reservoir storage all pose challenges to the Southwest. In the ‘Southwest Climate Podcast’, we focus on details and nuance, but (generally) avoid excessive technical jargon. Our goal is to synthesize information and data from experts, forecasts, and models to provide listeners with a better understanding of climate and weather in the Southwest, as well as the lessons we can learn from recent events and long term experiences.
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Episodes
Friday Oct 16, 2020
Friday Oct 16, 2020
In the October 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido open up with something fun - with a quick rundown of the Monsoon Game 2020, congratulating Mike (for his CLIMAS podcast team victory, with 33 points) and Aaryn O with his overall victory (56 points). Next, they look back on the monsoon, and try to make sense of some of the reasons that might have contributed to the widespread below average (or even record driest) conditions in the Southwest. They take a closer look at some of the mechanisms that might be in play and review a few papers that address the role of climate change in a changing monsoon. Finally, they look forward (begrudgingly) at winter 2020-2021, which is lining up to be either a moderate or strong La Niña, and the discuss the implications of forecasts for a drier than average winter stacking on top of a very dry monsoon.
Thursday Sep 10, 2020
Thursday Sep 10, 2020
In the September 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido reflect on this year's monsoon. The monsoon is not over, but at this point it is clear it will come in on the dry side of things. They discuss some of the reasons why, and how this below average monsoon compares across the region and to other years. Zack also recounts some of our Slack/text conversations about the monsoon and maps them onto the 5 stages of grief framework. They also discuss tropical storm activity in the eastern Pacific and talk through the monsoon game for August. There is not much on the horizon for the rest of September, but we have been surprised before, so here's hoping!
Tuesday Aug 11, 2020
Tuesday Aug 11, 2020
In the August 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss "what is going on with monsoon 2020?!" This includes a review of different locations around the U.S. Southwest, where some locales are just barely hitting long-term averages, while others are running at record or near-record driest levels (so far). They also cover some of the factors driving these patterns, what we might expect in the 2nd half of the monsoon, and where this ranks in terms of the regional precipitation records (and unmet expectations). They wrap with a discussion of the monsoon game, which is fun despite the relatively dry conditions - especially for those that leaned on the dry side of their guesses in Arizona. The results for July are posted below, and congrats to Doug D on topping the July leaderboard.
We also finally have some podcast gear (shirts and mugs). You can order them at https://teespring.com/stores/the-southwest-climate-podcast. We set the prices at wholesale cost, so we don't make any money off sales, but if you are interested in showing your support - or enjoying the (lack of a) monsoon in style, this is one way to do so. Mike's and Zack's orders both arrived, and they can vouch for the quality of the shirts and the printing.
Wednesday Jul 15, 2020
Wednesday Jul 15, 2020
In the July 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido update their discussion of the 2020 wildfire season, which is turning out to be quite active for Arizona (while New Mexico is relatively quiet). Next, they move on to monsoon 2020, focusing on what the outlooks and forecasts had to say about this year, how this slow start compares to previous years, and asking the question ‘does a late start matter?’ for the overall seasonal totals (hint: it’s complicated). They also include a discussion of “key numbers” for the monsoon and a discussion of some recent literature about the role of widespread precipitation events and regional monsoon precipitation totals. They are joined at the end by Ben McMahan to talk a bit about the monsoon guessing game - where they discuss the guesses they received for July and look forward to seeing even more people play for August and September - Details Below:
Monsoon Game Details: Ben, Zack, and Mike developed a monsoon game that anyone can play. For each month, they are estimating monthly precipitation at five cities in the US Southwest (Phoenix, Tucson, Flagstaff, Albuquerque, and El Paso). To keep it simple, they are picking the decile they think is most likely for each station, and focusing on the core months of monsoon precipitation (July-Aug-Sept). Points are awarded each month (see the survey link for details), and they will tally up points over the monsoon and see who scores highest for each month, each location, and overall. They had around 35 players for July (see figures below), but you can still get your guesses in for August (and eventually September).
Make your August guess at https://bit.ly/3h2ZInS
We’ll publish results on the podcast page and in the SWCO each month, but be sure to tune in to the podcast for more details about the game and the monsoon.
Tuesday Jun 23, 2020
Tuesday Jun 23, 2020
In the June 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to talk about the last month of weather (including what Zack has coined the "TooSoon"), the current conditions (including the wildfire situation) and look forward to the monsoon. The monsoon may have officially started on June 15th, but they discuss why we are probably at least a few weeks away from seeing much in the way of rain. Also, we developed a 'play at home' game for guessing monthly monsoon totals, and we're excited to open this up to the general public. You can enter the game (and fill out a short survey about the podcast if you want at https://uarizona.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_eA1GfWVmsatWDLD
The link explains the game, and Zack also lays out the rules and points on the podcast. The game will be for the months of July, August, and September, so you have till June 30th to get your July guesses in. We'll run another entry for August in July, and so on.
Happy Monsoon!
Thursday May 28, 2020
Thursday May 28, 2020
In the May 2020 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss a bit more about the winter that was, summer heat (and the current spring/May heat), the upcoming monsoon, and some of the seasonal hazards we see in the Southwest this time of year (heat, wildfire, air quality). They also look to the monsoon and summer seasonal outlooks and the factors affecting monsoon timing and intensity, offering some insight into what we can (or can't) say about monsoon forecasts (before each giving one of their own). They conclude with a bit of ENSO discussion, given the possible La Nina on the horizon.
Tuesday May 26, 2020
Tuesday May 26, 2020
We hope that our climate/weather punditry can serve as a short break from concerns about the Covid19/coronavirus outbreak. We plan to continue producing this podcast remotely for the foreseeable future, and this podcast was recorded over Zoom. The sound quality might be a little different (or maybe you won't even notice), but we want to keep making the podcast during the stay-at/work-from-home order. We enjoy these discussions and hope you do too. -Ben, Mike, and Zack
In the April 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido bring you the latest news and commentary about climate in the Southwest. First, they have a conversation about the links between COVID-19 and climate, and the challenges of research during a fast-moving event (You can skip to the 15:00 mark if you want to move straight to their discussion of southwestern climate). For the rest of the podcast, they move through an overview of events from winter and early spring - including just how wet and wildflower-y it has been. This leads to a discussion of wildfire, the timing and quality of current ENSO forecasts, and just a bit of optimism looking towards the monsoon.
Discussed in this Episode:
Potential Effects of Seasonal and Temperature Changes on Spread of COVID-19 Examined in New Rapid Response to Government from Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases - https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2020/04/potential-effects-of-seasonal-and-temperature-changes-on-spread-of-covid-19-examined-in-new-rapid-response-to-government-from-standing-committee-on-emerging-infectious-diseases
Tuesday May 26, 2020
Tuesday May 26, 2020
Looking for the March 2020 Podcast? We included the wrong bit.ly link in the email and the tweet leads to this page.
The Mar 2020 podcast is here: https://bit.ly/2IZf7GN
In the Jan 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a look back at 2019 and the climate that was, and make some bold (and not so bold) predictions for what could happen in 2020. They also dive into the tricky question regarding drought designations in the Southwest, and grapple with the question of "Are we (still) in a drought?" - a common question we get asked all the time. The answer (as you might imagine) is more complicated, and depends on lots of things - tune in to hear their answer(s).
Maps Discussed in this Episode:
NCEI Precipitation and Temperature Ranks (Jan-Dec 2019)
WWDT 36 and 72 month Standardized Precipitation Index
Tuesday May 26, 2020
Tuesday May 26, 2020
In the Mar 2020 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss winter conditions across the Southwest, the state of snowpack and snow water equivalent around the west, and water supply and streamflow forecasts as we look to spring and summer.
Discussed in this Episode:
Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation - P.C.D. Milly, K.A. Dunne
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6483/1252
UA Snowview: https://climate.arizona.edu/snowview/
NRCS Snow Water Equivalent
NRCS Streamflow Forecasts (link)
Tuesday Dec 24, 2019
Tuesday Dec 24, 2019
In the Dec 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back and joins Mike Crimmins for a discussion of the fall weather that was, and the winter weather that could be. This includes a very wet November, some of the factors that might affect our winter weather patterns, and the challenge of looking further out than a week or two during an ENSO-neutral winter. Happy Holidays! We'll be back in (Jan) 2020 for another look at SW climate and weather.
November 2019 ranks from National Centers for Environmental Information - ncei.noaa.gov