CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast

Sept 2021 Southwest Climate Podcast - Is the (Generational) Monsoon Over?

In the September Edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to revisit last month's discussion of a generational monsoon. They check in around the region to see how various locations are faring and discuss the interesting patterns they've seen in monsoon activity so far. They put the totals to date into climatological context and rankings, to see who is experiencing a generational monsoon, vs. areas that are "just" above average (or who are lagging behind).  They wrap with a discussion of "Is the Monsoon Over" - and talk about the reasons why you may/may not think so, and what the transition season means for the last few weeks of the monsoon (and the final seasonal rankings).

August 2021 Southwest Climate Podcast - 2021 - A Generational Monsoon?

In the August 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the "monsoon that comes to you" (i.e. it's just about everywhere, and it just keeps coming!).  They discuss the (record) July for some areas, as well as the well above average conditions around much of the region. They also deconstruct the elements that are feeding into this persistent monsoon rainfall and take a deep dive into a few of the events that have contributed to impressive totals.  They wrap up with a discussion of outlooks for the rest of the season, whether any stations might hit record monsoon totals (Tucson is definitely in the running), and what this has meant for the monsoon fantasy game (suffice to say, the guesses for July did not anticipate the record wet conditions).
Resources Discussed:
https://cals.arizona.edu/climate/misc/SWMonsoonMaps/current/swus_monsoon.html
https://www.weather.gov/psr/StormReportfor2126July2021
https://monsoon.environment.arizona.edu/
https://rainlog.org/map
https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/home

July 2021 Southwest Climate Podcast - Early Monsoon Stats - All Timer or Too Soon to Tell?

In the (mid/late) July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido are back at it, given all that happened with the monsoon since early July.  First, they dive into monsoon conditions around the region, to put them into climatological perspective, while discussing some of the defining characteristics of the monsoon. Next they grapple with the question: Is this shaping up to be an all-timer for July, given all the rain that's already fallen (and what is in the forecast for the rest of July)?  The answer is complicated (tune in to hear where they land on this).  Finally, they look a bit at the forecasts and outlooks for the upcoming weeks and months and remind us about the monsoon fantasy game that we are running this monsoon.
A reminder from the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game:
We pose this question to you: will August be wet, dry, or in between at stations around the Southwest? So far, the monsoon has been wet in many places, with an active monsoon pattern over the next few days likely to add more to the totals. This is our final reminder: you will only be able to make your August forecasts up until 11:59 pm tomorrow night, Friday (Jul 23). We then lock the forecasts so that you can't use the 7-day weather forecast to inform your estimates. 
Submit your August Guesses: https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/home
 

July 2021 Southwest Climate Podcast - Tracking Heat Waves and the Onset of the Monsoon

In the June/early-July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss weather and climate in the Southwest.  They start with June heatwaves, and where these sit in comparison to climatology/normal for the Southwest, and how they differ from the record heat waves seen in the Pacific Northwest.  They transition to a discussion of the early(ish) onset of the monsoon this year, and whether this bodes well for a better monsoon than last year (frankly, this is a low bar to clear).  Finally, they recap their own (forecast) guesses for July and run through the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game we are trying out this year. https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/
We plan to do another podcast in mid/late July to see where things stand with the monsoon, but so far, so good (or at least better than last year).

May 2021 Southwest Climate Podcast - Late May’s Most Common Question - What’s The Monsoon Forecast?!

In the May 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss a range of issues related to that most pressing question this time of year - "What's the Monsoon Forecast?!".  They run through the last month of weather, what we might expect from June given historical patterns and extremes, and how much faith we can put in forecasts this time of year (hint, it's tough to make a good monsoon forecast). The podcast wraps with a reminder about the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game. We piloted the game last year, and this year there's a new and improved interface and some fun prizes.  Stay tuned to the end of the podcast (or watch this space) for details on the game (how to play, prizes, etc.). 

Apr 2021 Southwest Climate Podcast - Winter Weather Scorecard and Diving into Assessments of Seasonal vs. Mega Drought

In the April 2021 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido jump into winter weather and assessments of (drought) conditions.  First, they look back at winter so far and see how it stacks up to recent historical totals. Next, they take a closer look at the relationship between summer and winter precipitation, and the various phase combinations (wet/dry, dry/wet, wet/wet, dry/dry). They turn to some paleoclimate expertise to help them think about these patterns, as well as how drought has been defined (seasonal drought, megadrought, etc.), and how these terms get used in science communication and the media.

Mar 2021 Southwest Climate Podcast - Was the SW Winter ”La-Niña-y”? Best of the Worst Edition

In the Mar 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the winter in the Southwest, and whether it lived up to expectations for a La Niña winter. They also go over streamflow, snowpack, and start a deeper dive into reservoirs, based on a listener question from last month (send in your questions if you have them!). They dabble a bit in the seasonal forecasts and talk about some of the key things they will be watching over the next 3-4 months, namely how fire season evolves, and when we can (reasonably) start looking ahead towards monsoon onset. They wrap up with a brief preview of monsoon-game 2.0, and hint at what we have planned.

Feb 2021 Southwest Climate Podcast - Recent Storms and Dry Forecasts - Diving into La Niña and 2021

In the February 2021 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido jump back into discussing winter conditions in the Southwest. This includes what happened so far in 2021 with a few runs of storms that affected parts of Arizona and New Mexico. This also includes the role that La Niña may be playing this winter (snowpack, streamflow forecasts, rain/snow events, etc.), and how this compares to previous winters and La Niña events. They also discuss what we might expect for the rest of the "wet" winter season (really, Feb-Mar) in the arid Southwest. 

Dec 2020 Southwest Climate Podcast - Tracking Drought Conditions, La Niña Forecasts, and What 2021 Might Bring

In the Dec 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss drought, La Nina, and what to expect (or at least hope for) in 2021. First, they recap the event that swept through on Dec 9-11, to talk through how different locations in the region fared in terms of precip.  Next, they transition into the drought situation, which is currently looking pretty dire for the region - and discuss 'just how much worse can it get' - given much of the region is at Exceptional Drought (D4, the highest category on the US Drought Monitor), looking to some past events for comparison. They wrap things up with some 2021 predictions - things they think could (or hope might) happen in 2021.

Nov 2020 Southwest Climate Podcast - Unprecedented or Uncommon, A La Niña Winter after a Failed Monsoon

In the November episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss weather and climate in the Southwest, including what we might expect over the next few months.  They discuss La Niña and what this might mean for the Southwest, including implications of La Niña following a much drier than average monsoon and what the historical record says about just how unprecedented this pattern might be (dry monsoon, dry winter). Finally, they take a closer look at fire, and how the season has progressed in the Southwest, given the lack of rain, and what we might watch for going into next year's fire season.