CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast
El Niño and La Niña, the southwestern monsoon, tropical storm activity, increasing temperatures, fire risk and weather, drought and snowpack, and dwindling reservoir storage all pose challenges to the Southwest. In the ‘Southwest Climate Podcast’, we focus on details and nuance, but (generally) avoid excessive technical jargon. Our goal is to synthesize information and data from experts, forecasts, and models to provide listeners with a better understanding of climate and weather in the Southwest, as well as the lessons we can learn from recent events and long term experiences.
Listen on:
Episodes
Monday May 11, 2015
Monday May 11, 2015
In the May 2015 Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins reconvene to talk about the Winter patterns that fed into our current situation, and how it has actually been pretty moist and cool (for this time of year) after a very warm winter. They then turn back to El Niño - which despite being hard to predict, forecast, or describe - has given us a lot to think about. They exercise some warranted caution in putting too much stock in forecasts given the "excitement" surrounding a strong El Niño event, but the patterns in place are suggesting this enthusiasm might not be misplaced. They move on to talk about how El Niño may affect tropical storm activity and monsoon patterns looking into Summer and Fall 2015, as well as the impacts of last year's monsoon (and mild weather this Spring) on fire season. Drought and water availability present a less optimistic scenario - below average winter precipitation and above average winter temperatures for most of the Western U.S. mean snowpack is well below average heading into summer, with implications for water storage and availability.
0:00 -- Intro - Our Most (Least) Favorite Month of the Year, Winter Recap & El Niño
2:20 -- Recapping Winter Patterns - Precipitation, Temperature, Record Setting Averages & "Warm West / Cold East" Jetstream Patterns
5:00 -- Jetstream as ENSO Precursor Pattern - Transition into an El Niño Event Now That the Atmosphere is Finally Cooperating
8:30 -- Different from Last Spring - Despite Similarities with Spring 2014 (in the Models) - "Excitement" in the Models
11:00 -- Caution in Forecasting El Niño - Spring Predictability Barrier - Difficulty in Modeling in the Spring, Analogs, and Small Sample Size
15:00 -- Shifts in Global Circulation - How this Affects Tropical Storm Activity & Monsoon Precipitation (for the Southwest, mainly) - Flooding Hazards with El Niño
19:30 -- Monsoon & Fire Season - Heading into Fire Season - Mixed Precipitation but Late/Wet/Cool Spring Tamping Down Early Fire Season - California and NW may be in trouble regarding Fire, while Monsoon Patterns will bring Summer Relief (for AZ and NM)
23:30 -- Recap of Winter/Spring Patterns & Streamflow - Split Flow Jetstream and Character of Spring Storms - Very "El Niño-ish" - Recap of Streamflow Projections - Below Average Winter Precipitation Across the West (Plus High Temperatures)
27:00 -- Looking Forward to the Monsoon - Hoping for a Good Monsoon That Starts on Time
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
Suggested Source/Citation:
CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2015) May 2015 SW Climate Podcast - Winter Recap Following a Mild Spring, El Niño Slotting into Place, and Looking Towards Summer - with Wildfire, Tropical Storms, and the Monsoon on Tap [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/may-2015-sw-climate-podcast-winter-recap-following-mild-spring-el-ni%C3%B1o-slotting-place-and [Date Accessed]
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Tuesday May 05, 2015
Tuesday May 05, 2015
We're introducing a new podcast series that focuses on quick and timely reporting on important climate news and information. We will emphasize stories that relate to the southwest, but we'll also include other climate related news that illustrate the impact of climate on national or global scales. And Mike, Zack, and Ben will still take a deeper look at southwestern climate issues in the monthly CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. This episode, we're focused on record warm temperatures, drought, and snowpack across the west, along with a few stories that illustrate the downstream impact of these conditions.
This podcast is also available as a video podcast
See our blog post detailing the information from the podcast: http://www.climas.arizona.edu/blog/mini-podcastnews-southwest-climate-update-may-1-2015
Image & Story Credits - Podcast & Blog Post
2014 and 2015 Record Temperatures
National Climate Data Center (NCDC) - State of the Climate - Overview
2014 Warmest Year on Record
Figure: Decadal Averages - Annual & Decadal Global Mean Temperatures - Source: NCDC/NESDIS/NOAA
Figure: Statewide Average Temperature Ranks - Jan - Dec 2014 - Source: NCDC
Figure: Statewide Average Temperature Ranks - Jan - Mar 2015 - Source: NCDC
Figure: Westwide SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal - Source: NRCS
State of the Drought
Drought is leading AZ to think about Water Planning
Figure: U.S. Drought Monitor Weekly Update - April 21, 2015 - Source: USDM
Figure: Northern Sierra Precip - 8-Station Index - Source: CA Dept of Water Resources
Figure: Central Arizona Project Systems Map - Source: CAP
Figure: Agricultural Use by Crop - Source: Mother Jones
Figure: Central Arizona Project Sytems Map - Source: CAP
Figure: Lake Mead Elevation - Source: CLIMAS (using Bureau of Reclamation Data)
Figure: Tier 1 Shortage - Source: April 10, 2015 UA Water Forum
Figure: Tucson Water Use - Source: Tucson Water
Bark Beetles, Tree Stress, and Climate Change
Bark Beetles Are Decimating Our Forests. That Might Actually Be a Good Thing. (Mother Jones)
Figure: Rocky Mountain Region Bark Beetle - Source: U.S. Forest Service
Figure: Arizona & New Mexico Bark Beetle Mortality - Source: U.S. Forest Service
Figure: Percentage of Trees Seen With Damage - Source: U.S. Forest Service & Karen Minot (Mother Jones)
Record Low Snowpack Across the West
Record low snowpack and drought - California water restrictions (Weather.com)
Figure: Snow Water Equivalent - Source: NRCS
Figure: California Snowpack - Source: California Department of Water Resources
FIgure: California Water Restrictions Press Conference - Source: Weather.com
Snowpack, Drought, & Energy
Information & Figures: California drought leads to less hydropower, increased natural gas generation - U.S. Energy Information Administration
Climate Change, Temperature & Precipitation Records, and Pollen
Information & Figures: Warm temperatures and a wet fall resulted in a very heavy pollen season this year. Source: http://www.earthgauge.net/2015/climate-change-pollen-and-allergy-season
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan
Emily Huddleston
Monday Mar 09, 2015
Monday Mar 09, 2015
In the March Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back from his world travels (for work!) and joins Mike Crimmins to discuss SW climate, including winter precipitation, snowpack, and temperature reports so far. They also dive into the "warm in the west, cold in the east" pattern, and talk jetstream, polar vortex, and digging troughs as it pertains to SW weather patterns. Next up is the (finally arriving!) El Niño, which is a bit late, and a bit weak, but there are interesting aspects of this year to consider looking into the next year, especially the persistent ridge that has helped drive the patterns of the past few months. Finally they wrap up by looking into next year regarding what's left of winter, and what 2015 may have in store.
Intro
0:00
Climate Summary: Precipitation in the SW (variable), Snowpack (very low), Warm temps and low snow, Drought still going strong (especially in CA), Temperature reports (record or near record temps across the west)
1:30
Polar Opposites: The "dipole" - warm in the west - cold in the east - pattern we've seen - Jetstream, Polar Vortex, and Digging Troughs - impact on SW weather
7:30
What's going on with El Niño this year?: We finally get El Niño (a weak one), but what do we make of it finally (and weakly) arriving? Limited effects expected (or experienced so far) in the SW.
11:50
Persistent Ridge: Pacific Ocean temperatures, jetstream patterns, and tropical convection - Thinking about El Niño pre-cursors and moving towards a more typical El Niño - but this is an unusual case (even exciting!) - and how does this relate to the Arctic Oscillation
15:00
El Niño and SST into Next Year?: Ocean/Atmosphere may be too late for this year and hard to predict...but with ENSO precursors and additional Kelvin Waves - might not be done with El Niño
24:00
Looking Forward: What's left for the winter? (not too much), and the drought/streamflow forecasts are not very optimistic, but there is still time for a few good winter storms, but with a weak El Niño event, uncertain what we'll see in the next 30-60 days.
25:30
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
Suggested Source/Citation:
CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2015).Mar 2015 SW Climate Podcast: Winter Weather Summary, Polar Opposites & El Niño Finally Arrives [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/mar-2015-sw-climate-podcast-winter-weather-summary-polar-opposites-el-ni%C3%B1o-finally-arrives [Date Accessed]
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Friday Feb 06, 2015
Friday Feb 06, 2015
We're trying something new. The regular monthly Southwest Climate Podcast will not change format or timing, and Mike, Zack, and Ben will continue to bring you monthly updates on SW climate issues. We're expanding our focus to something a bit broader than just the Southwest to take advantage of the numerous people who are living and breathing work on climate science, communication, outreach, education, and engagement on a daily basis.
The first episode is an interview that Dan Ferguson (CLIMAS program director) conducted with Dr. Susanne Moser, during the time she was visiting Tucson as a CCASS Distinguished Visiting Fellow in early 2015. They discuss the state of climate research, alternative or creative ways to engage people or even to think about climate and society, the power of social change, the challenges/rewards of working in this field, and perspectives on future directions for research, education, and engagement.
For now, these episodes will be embedded within the SW Climate Podcast Feed, so if you're not interested, you can skip this until next months podcast, but we think this conversation offers a lot of insight into climate science and communication, as well as possible solutions moving forward.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Daniel Ferguson
Wednesday Jan 21, 2015
Wednesday Jan 21, 2015
In the January Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back and joins Mike Crimmins to discuss the state of the climate in 2014, including the record year for Arizona and the near record year for New Mexico. They also talk about weather systems that affected our most recent temperature and precipitation patterns, the ongoing uncertainty with El Niño, or as some have started referring to it, "El Limbo", and the state of precipitation and drought in the southwest. They wrap things up looking at the seasonal outlooks and the projected trends for the coming year.
Intro
0:00
Climate Summary: Temperature and Precipitation, weak and spotty storms in December and January
1:50
Winter Storms: Water storage and winter precipitation patterns
8:00
Weather vs. Climate: Weather variability vs. Climate patterns, "El Limbo", and winter precip patterns given these trends
13:00
2014 Record Year: 2014 Temperature Records Recap
22:00
Precip and Drought: Winter patterns and drought - how much moisture "solves" the drought
24:00
Looking Forward: Jetstreams & Winter Weather Patterns + Seasonal Forecasts
27:30
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Zack Guido (zguido@email.arizona.edu) or Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
Suggested Source/Citation:
CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2015). 2014 Year in Review, and Stuck in El Limbo . [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/jan-2015-sw-climate-podcast-2014-year-review-and-stuck-el-limbo [Date Accessed]
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Tuesday Dec 09, 2014
Tuesday Dec 09, 2014
In the November Southwest Climate Podcast, Ben McMahan and Mike Crimmins discuss the warm autumn weather in the southwest, the transition to winter weather patterns, the ongoing uncertainty of El Niño forecasts, a recap of El Niño conditions and definitions, and the possibility of interaction between El Niño conditions and weather patterns in the southwest looking forward.
Intro
0:00
A Wet and Warm Autumn: Warmer than average temps, higher than average humidity, and a recent "cold" snap
1:00
Recap of 2014 Tropical Storm Season: A more active season in the E Pacific
7:30
El Niño Forecast Models: More on how El Niño is defined, models that go into them, and the current state of "now-casting"
13:44
El Niño Definition: Revisiting a more precise definition of El Niño and the conditions we might expect (if it ever arrives)
22:00
Looking toward the Future: Impact of El Niño conditions on the SW, and looking forward into 2015
27:00
Recap on Long Term Forecasts & Looking Forward
34:00
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Zack Guido (zguido@email.arizona.edu) or Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
Also, as we mentioned last month, we have a new podcast feature: video mini-segments from the podcast. We have four segments posted from previous podcasts, including:
Monsoon & Drought Q&A
SW Tropical Storm Climatology
ENSO (El Niño) Models Q&A
Norbert vs. Odile - SW Tropical Storm Comparison
And we have decided to release approximate transcripts of the podcast.
Suggested Source/Citation:
CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2014). A Warm End to Autumn and Waiting for ENSO. [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/nov-2014-sw-climate-podcast-warm-end-autumn-and-waiting-enso [Date Accessed]
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan
Michael Crimmins
Thursday Oct 23, 2014
Thursday Oct 23, 2014
In the October Southwest Climate Podcast, CLIMAS climate scientists Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins discuss the 2014 monsoon, focusing on the influence of tropical storm systems, record and near-record precipitation events, monsoon intensity and duration, and the ever-present promise of El Niño.
Intro
0:00
Monsoon/Precipitation Recap: Including influence of tropical storms, record/near-record precipitation, comparison to 2013
1:00
Tropical storm influence: Extending the monsoon and driving seasonal totals
10:00
El Niño Forecast Models: Predicting a wet fall/winter, El Niño influence, Kelvin wave effects and warm waters in the Pacific
15:10
El Niño "Now-Casting": Unique case to watch, why El Niño has been hard to predict
20:00
Drought Mitigation and Winter Precip: - El Niño conditions are favorable and it's almost here
26:00
Recap & Looking Forward: (Arctic Oscillation)
31:30
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Zack Guido (zguido@email.arizona.edu) or Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
Also, as we mentioned last month, we have a new podcast feature: video mini-segments from the podcast. We have four segments posted from previous podcasts, including:
Monsoon & Drought Q&A
SW Tropical Storm Climatology
ENSO (El Niño) Models Q&A
Norbert vs. Odile - SW Tropical Storm Comparison
And we have decided to release approximate transcripts of the podcast.
Suggested Source/Citation:
CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2014). Monsoon Recap and an El Niño Double Dip. [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/oct-2014-sw-climate-podcast-monsoon-recap-and-el-ni%C3%B1o-double-dip [Date Accessed]
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Wednesday Oct 01, 2014
Wednesday Oct 01, 2014
In the September Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins talk about tropical storm climatology, details about Norbert and Odile, explore the details of the "Kelvin Wave", and answer a question about El Niño models submitted by a listener.
Intro & Recap:
0:00
Tropical Storm Climatology
10:06
Norbert Vs. Odile
14:45
What is a Kelvin Wave?
27:53
El Niño Models (Question from listener)
29:45
We are introducing a new feature: video mini-segments from the podcast. The first of which comes from last month's podcast, and addresses monsoon & drought in response to a listener question, and is viewable on youtube. This month's video podcasts will be added to this page as we release them
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Zack Guido (zguido@email.arizona.edu) or Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
Also, we are introducing a new feature: video mini-segments from the podcast. The first of which comes from last month's podcast, and addresses monsoon & drought in response to a listener question, and is viewable on youtube.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Tuesday Aug 26, 2014
Tuesday Aug 26, 2014
In the August Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins talk about variability and timing of monsoon precipitation, and why frequent and sustained moisture might matter more than heavy infrequent rains (for drought, especially). El Niño is still dragging its heels, but it still looks good for a weak to moderate event this winter. Zack and Mike also answer questions submitted by listeners, including one on "weather" vs. "climate" and how the monsoon is a good way to think about this distinction, and another on whether the monsoon and El Niño can really help with a long term drought.
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Zack Guido (zguido@email.arizona.edu) or Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Tuesday Aug 12, 2014
Tuesday Aug 12, 2014
1075’ – Shortage on the Colorado River is a CLIMAS podcast series that explores what the first ever shortage declaration on the Colorado River would mean to those living in the Southwest. In this episode, CLIMAS climate scientist Zack Guido speaks with Alan Forrest, Director of Tucson Water, about various strategies that Tucson implemented to deal with potential water shortages, the conservation and recapture efforts that municipalities in Southern Arizona, and the practical realities of providing municipal water to an growing population in the southwest.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ryan Thomas
Zack Guido