CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast
El Niño and La Niña, the southwestern monsoon, tropical storm activity, increasing temperatures, fire risk and weather, drought and snowpack, and dwindling reservoir storage all pose challenges to the Southwest. In the ‘Southwest Climate Podcast’, we focus on details and nuance, but (generally) avoid excessive technical jargon. Our goal is to synthesize information and data from experts, forecasts, and models to provide listeners with a better understanding of climate and weather in the Southwest, as well as the lessons we can learn from recent events and long term experiences.
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Episodes
Tuesday Nov 10, 2015
Tuesday Nov 10, 2015
In the Nov 2015 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back on an anomalously wet October, and in particular the effect of one system that made two visits to the Southwest. They also talk about Hurricane Patricia, and the speed at which that tropical system escalated to one of the strongest storms on record. They also talk about October weather in terms of the seasonal transition (between monsoon summer and fall/winter patterns) and the impact of tropical storm systems, as well as the difficulty of attributing specific weather events to longer term patterns (i.e. the El Niño Southern Oscillation). They wrap up by talking about El Niño and the seasonal forecasts, which include projections of above average precipitation in the southwest, as well as a number of global impacts.
Wednesday Oct 07, 2015
Wednesday Oct 07, 2015
In this episode of The Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins & Zack Guido recap the 2015 monsoon, (and revisit some of their predictions from earlier this summer).
In part 1, they give a quick overview of the monsoon, before taking a closer look at the month by month progression, to track the overall season for what stood out (and what was underwhelming).
In part 2, they talk about nuances associated with the monsoon, including the impacts of El Niño, and eastern pacific tropical storm activity.
They conclude with a discussion of the variable nature of the monsoon, and what makes this such an exciting place to live as we watch the season unfold.
The Southwest Climate Podcast is a production of CLIMAS - Climate Assessment for the Southwest. CLIMAS is part of the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment program, and is focused on climate research, communication, and outreach in Arizona & New Mexico, and is housed at the University of Arizona Institute of the Environment. Mike Crimmins is a principle investigator with CLIMAS, a professor of Soil, Water and Environmental Science in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, and climate extension specialist with the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension. Zack Guido is a research scientist with the Institute of the Environment and UA program manager of the International Research and Applications Program (IRAP). The podcast is edited and produced by Ben McMahan; Research, Outreach, and Assessment Specialist with CLIMAS.
Thursday Sep 24, 2015
Thursday Sep 24, 2015
Note: We had server difficulties with our podcast feed - the podcast is posted now, and is also available on iTunes.
In this edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins focus specifically on El Niño and what we can expect going into this fall and winter, given the "strong" status of this El Niño event.
Part 1: A look at the El Niño signal, including a look back at what happened in 2014 (and why El Niño didn't start when we thought it would), as well as a look forward for what El Niño might mean regionally and globally.
Part 2: A close look at the 97-98 El Niño event, and what happened in the Southwest during the last "strong" El Niño event...can we expect more of the same? What might be different?
Part 3: A look at the El Niño models going into Fall 2015 and Winter 2016 - How certain are we about increased precipitation this winter? When might we see this increase? Any chance for a "boringly average" year, despite the El Niño signal?
We'll be back at the end of September with a Monsoon recap, as well as up to date information regarding El Niño and what this might mean for the Southwest in 2015-2016.
Tuesday Aug 18, 2015
Tuesday Aug 18, 2015
In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the 2015 monsoon so far, with thoughts on how it has fared, and what it looks like for the rest of the monsoon, particularly with El Niño looming on the horizon. In addition to a general summary and recap, they look at spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon, some of the features that drive 'breaks' in the monsoon, and what impact El Niño might be having now, and this winter, especially if it remains a strong event. They also talk about expectations and what makes a "normal" monsoon, as well as how our expectations might be shaping how we perceive any given monsoon event or season.
They cut short the El Niño discussion, as we've planned a special El Niño-centric podcast for Aug 21, to take a deeper look at El Niño so far, what we might expect, and how this (strong) event could compare to other similar events...so stay tuned regarding El Niño.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Tuesday Jul 21, 2015
Tuesday Jul 21, 2015
In a special edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins:
Recap the monsoon so far in 2015, including some of the factors that have affected our season (e.g. tropical storm systems) and the impacts we have seen from the monsoon in 2015
Discuss the features of the monsoon - the "ingredients" that make up the monsoon, and what happens when any of these are disrupted or absent, and
Look forward regarding interactions between the monsoon and the current moderate-to-strong El Niño signal - what this might mean for the rest of the monsoon.
We wanted to put together a special all monsoon podcast (this actually started as a "mini" podcast, but there was just too much to cover!). We'll be back in early August with climate summaries, more on the monsoon, and (of course!) the current state of El Niño and what that means for the Southwest.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Wednesday Jul 01, 2015
Wednesday Jul 01, 2015
In the June 2015 edition of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the month of June, including the quick transition from cool and wet to hot and muggy conditions. The discuss the impact of tropical storms on the region, the early start to this season, and what this may or may not mean in terms of relationship to monsoon patterns. They turn to El Niño, and the impact the El Niño signal may be having on the region, both looking back at the past few months, but in particular looking forward at what this could mean for the southwest in terms of precipitation patterns over the next 12 months.
0:00 Introduction
1:15 June Recap- Temperature, Precipitation, Influence of Tropical Storms, etc.
8:00 Links to the Monsoon - System is setting up - what we've seen so far, and what we can expect moving forward.
15:00 Monsoon and (early arriving) tropical storms, and the impending El Niño event - how big of a role will ENSO play in the monsoon? tropical storms?
22:30 Looking back to the El Niño event of 97-98 - how does this one compare? Could it be even bigger? What would that mean for the Southwest?
26:00 Looking towards the rest of summer, fall and winter - Given persistent El Niño- short term effects (temp & precip) vs. impact on long term trends (like drought).
29:00 Wrapping up and looking forward.
Please note: we are aware of the intermittent audio glitches in the recording, and are working towards a solution. They are brief and shouldn't interfere with the overall podcast, but we apologize for any inconvenience.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Friday Jun 26, 2015
Friday Jun 26, 2015
We'll have a full episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast next week, but we wanted to take a quick run through the anomalous weather we saw in Mid/Late May and Early June. In this mini-version of the SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan go over the patterns we saw during this (admittedly beautiful) weather, before talking a bit about what this means looking towards the rest of the summer.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan
Michael Crimmins
Monday May 11, 2015
Monday May 11, 2015
In the May 2015 Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins reconvene to talk about the Winter patterns that fed into our current situation, and how it has actually been pretty moist and cool (for this time of year) after a very warm winter. They then turn back to El Niño - which despite being hard to predict, forecast, or describe - has given us a lot to think about. They exercise some warranted caution in putting too much stock in forecasts given the "excitement" surrounding a strong El Niño event, but the patterns in place are suggesting this enthusiasm might not be misplaced. They move on to talk about how El Niño may affect tropical storm activity and monsoon patterns looking into Summer and Fall 2015, as well as the impacts of last year's monsoon (and mild weather this Spring) on fire season. Drought and water availability present a less optimistic scenario - below average winter precipitation and above average winter temperatures for most of the Western U.S. mean snowpack is well below average heading into summer, with implications for water storage and availability.
0:00 -- Intro - Our Most (Least) Favorite Month of the Year, Winter Recap & El Niño
2:20 -- Recapping Winter Patterns - Precipitation, Temperature, Record Setting Averages & "Warm West / Cold East" Jetstream Patterns
5:00 -- Jetstream as ENSO Precursor Pattern - Transition into an El Niño Event Now That the Atmosphere is Finally Cooperating
8:30 -- Different from Last Spring - Despite Similarities with Spring 2014 (in the Models) - "Excitement" in the Models
11:00 -- Caution in Forecasting El Niño - Spring Predictability Barrier - Difficulty in Modeling in the Spring, Analogs, and Small Sample Size
15:00 -- Shifts in Global Circulation - How this Affects Tropical Storm Activity & Monsoon Precipitation (for the Southwest, mainly) - Flooding Hazards with El Niño
19:30 -- Monsoon & Fire Season - Heading into Fire Season - Mixed Precipitation but Late/Wet/Cool Spring Tamping Down Early Fire Season - California and NW may be in trouble regarding Fire, while Monsoon Patterns will bring Summer Relief (for AZ and NM)
23:30 -- Recap of Winter/Spring Patterns & Streamflow - Split Flow Jetstream and Character of Spring Storms - Very "El Niño-ish" - Recap of Streamflow Projections - Below Average Winter Precipitation Across the West (Plus High Temperatures)
27:00 -- Looking Forward to the Monsoon - Hoping for a Good Monsoon That Starts on Time
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
Suggested Source/Citation:
CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2015) May 2015 SW Climate Podcast - Winter Recap Following a Mild Spring, El Niño Slotting into Place, and Looking Towards Summer - with Wildfire, Tropical Storms, and the Monsoon on Tap [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/may-2015-sw-climate-podcast-winter-recap-following-mild-spring-el-ni%C3%B1o-slotting-place-and [Date Accessed]
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Tuesday May 05, 2015
Tuesday May 05, 2015
We're introducing a new podcast series that focuses on quick and timely reporting on important climate news and information. We will emphasize stories that relate to the southwest, but we'll also include other climate related news that illustrate the impact of climate on national or global scales. And Mike, Zack, and Ben will still take a deeper look at southwestern climate issues in the monthly CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. This episode, we're focused on record warm temperatures, drought, and snowpack across the west, along with a few stories that illustrate the downstream impact of these conditions.
This podcast is also available as a video podcast
See our blog post detailing the information from the podcast: http://www.climas.arizona.edu/blog/mini-podcastnews-southwest-climate-update-may-1-2015
Image & Story Credits - Podcast & Blog Post
2014 and 2015 Record Temperatures
National Climate Data Center (NCDC) - State of the Climate - Overview
2014 Warmest Year on Record
Figure: Decadal Averages - Annual & Decadal Global Mean Temperatures - Source: NCDC/NESDIS/NOAA
Figure: Statewide Average Temperature Ranks - Jan - Dec 2014 - Source: NCDC
Figure: Statewide Average Temperature Ranks - Jan - Mar 2015 - Source: NCDC
Figure: Westwide SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal - Source: NRCS
State of the Drought
Drought is leading AZ to think about Water Planning
Figure: U.S. Drought Monitor Weekly Update - April 21, 2015 - Source: USDM
Figure: Northern Sierra Precip - 8-Station Index - Source: CA Dept of Water Resources
Figure: Central Arizona Project Systems Map - Source: CAP
Figure: Agricultural Use by Crop - Source: Mother Jones
Figure: Central Arizona Project Sytems Map - Source: CAP
Figure: Lake Mead Elevation - Source: CLIMAS (using Bureau of Reclamation Data)
Figure: Tier 1 Shortage - Source: April 10, 2015 UA Water Forum
Figure: Tucson Water Use - Source: Tucson Water
Bark Beetles, Tree Stress, and Climate Change
Bark Beetles Are Decimating Our Forests. That Might Actually Be a Good Thing. (Mother Jones)
Figure: Rocky Mountain Region Bark Beetle - Source: U.S. Forest Service
Figure: Arizona & New Mexico Bark Beetle Mortality - Source: U.S. Forest Service
Figure: Percentage of Trees Seen With Damage - Source: U.S. Forest Service & Karen Minot (Mother Jones)
Record Low Snowpack Across the West
Record low snowpack and drought - California water restrictions (Weather.com)
Figure: Snow Water Equivalent - Source: NRCS
Figure: California Snowpack - Source: California Department of Water Resources
FIgure: California Water Restrictions Press Conference - Source: Weather.com
Snowpack, Drought, & Energy
Information & Figures: California drought leads to less hydropower, increased natural gas generation - U.S. Energy Information Administration
Climate Change, Temperature & Precipitation Records, and Pollen
Information & Figures: Warm temperatures and a wet fall resulted in a very heavy pollen season this year. Source: http://www.earthgauge.net/2015/climate-change-pollen-and-allergy-season
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan
Emily Huddleston
Monday Mar 09, 2015
Monday Mar 09, 2015
In the March Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back from his world travels (for work!) and joins Mike Crimmins to discuss SW climate, including winter precipitation, snowpack, and temperature reports so far. They also dive into the "warm in the west, cold in the east" pattern, and talk jetstream, polar vortex, and digging troughs as it pertains to SW weather patterns. Next up is the (finally arriving!) El Niño, which is a bit late, and a bit weak, but there are interesting aspects of this year to consider looking into the next year, especially the persistent ridge that has helped drive the patterns of the past few months. Finally they wrap up by looking into next year regarding what's left of winter, and what 2015 may have in store.
Intro
0:00
Climate Summary: Precipitation in the SW (variable), Snowpack (very low), Warm temps and low snow, Drought still going strong (especially in CA), Temperature reports (record or near record temps across the west)
1:30
Polar Opposites: The "dipole" - warm in the west - cold in the east - pattern we've seen - Jetstream, Polar Vortex, and Digging Troughs - impact on SW weather
7:30
What's going on with El Niño this year?: We finally get El Niño (a weak one), but what do we make of it finally (and weakly) arriving? Limited effects expected (or experienced so far) in the SW.
11:50
Persistent Ridge: Pacific Ocean temperatures, jetstream patterns, and tropical convection - Thinking about El Niño pre-cursors and moving towards a more typical El Niño - but this is an unusual case (even exciting!) - and how does this relate to the Arctic Oscillation
15:00
El Niño and SST into Next Year?: Ocean/Atmosphere may be too late for this year and hard to predict...but with ENSO precursors and additional Kelvin Waves - might not be done with El Niño
24:00
Looking Forward: What's left for the winter? (not too much), and the drought/streamflow forecasts are not very optimistic, but there is still time for a few good winter storms, but with a weak El Niño event, uncertain what we'll see in the next 30-60 days.
25:30
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
Suggested Source/Citation:
CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2015).Mar 2015 SW Climate Podcast: Winter Weather Summary, Polar Opposites & El Niño Finally Arrives [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/mar-2015-sw-climate-podcast-winter-weather-summary-polar-opposites-el-ni%C3%B1o-finally-arrives [Date Accessed]
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido