CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast
El Niño and La Niña, the southwestern monsoon, tropical storm activity, increasing temperatures, fire risk and weather, drought and snowpack, and dwindling reservoir storage all pose challenges to the Southwest. In the ‘Southwest Climate Podcast’, we focus on details and nuance, but (generally) avoid excessive technical jargon. Our goal is to synthesize information and data from experts, forecasts, and models to provide listeners with a better understanding of climate and weather in the Southwest, as well as the lessons we can learn from recent events and long term experiences.
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Episodes
Friday Feb 26, 2016
Friday Feb 26, 2016
In the February episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back, and he and Mike Crimmins sit down to talk, you guessed it, El Niño. They recap what we've seen over the past month, and take a closer look at whether this El Niño event is actually underperforming, whether expectations were set too high going into the season (Godzilla, etc.), and what we might expect for the upcoming month if we can ever break out of this high pressure system.
Tuesday Feb 02, 2016
Tuesday Feb 02, 2016
In the January 2016 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan** recap the transitional weather patterns of the last few months of 2015 as we moved from Fall into Winter, and discuss whether this transitional season matched general expectations, given what is expected in an El Niño year. They also discuss what a characteristic southwestern winter pattern looks like, and conclude the podcast with a conversation about how this El Niño event has stacked up so far this winter, and what they anticipate over the next few months.
*We had a small technical difficulty with the audio quality that delayed publication until today, but the conversation is still timely/relevant especially considering the general break in winter storm activity we've seen since early January (Jan 31 notwithstanding).
**Zack Guido is away on a research project but will join us again in February.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan
Michael Crimmins
Tuesday Dec 15, 2015
Tuesday Dec 15, 2015
In the December episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the difficulty of characterizing a climate phenomenon (in this case El Niño) on a weather time scale, which is made difficult by the highly variable transition season we see in the Southwest in October and November. This difficulty is especially salient as media, the general public, and climate scientists are all hungry for explanations as to whether day to day events fit into larger climate patterns (i.e. is this an El NIño related impact or not!?). They also go over the recent events of October, November, and early December, before looking forward at what the seasonal forecasts suggest is likely in store for this Winter (hint: all signs still point to a wetter than average winter!).
Tuesday Nov 10, 2015
Tuesday Nov 10, 2015
In the Nov 2015 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back on an anomalously wet October, and in particular the effect of one system that made two visits to the Southwest. They also talk about Hurricane Patricia, and the speed at which that tropical system escalated to one of the strongest storms on record. They also talk about October weather in terms of the seasonal transition (between monsoon summer and fall/winter patterns) and the impact of tropical storm systems, as well as the difficulty of attributing specific weather events to longer term patterns (i.e. the El Niño Southern Oscillation). They wrap up by talking about El Niño and the seasonal forecasts, which include projections of above average precipitation in the southwest, as well as a number of global impacts.
Wednesday Oct 07, 2015
Wednesday Oct 07, 2015
In this episode of The Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins & Zack Guido recap the 2015 monsoon, (and revisit some of their predictions from earlier this summer).
In part 1, they give a quick overview of the monsoon, before taking a closer look at the month by month progression, to track the overall season for what stood out (and what was underwhelming).
In part 2, they talk about nuances associated with the monsoon, including the impacts of El Niño, and eastern pacific tropical storm activity.
They conclude with a discussion of the variable nature of the monsoon, and what makes this such an exciting place to live as we watch the season unfold.
The Southwest Climate Podcast is a production of CLIMAS - Climate Assessment for the Southwest. CLIMAS is part of the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment program, and is focused on climate research, communication, and outreach in Arizona & New Mexico, and is housed at the University of Arizona Institute of the Environment. Mike Crimmins is a principle investigator with CLIMAS, a professor of Soil, Water and Environmental Science in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, and climate extension specialist with the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension. Zack Guido is a research scientist with the Institute of the Environment and UA program manager of the International Research and Applications Program (IRAP). The podcast is edited and produced by Ben McMahan; Research, Outreach, and Assessment Specialist with CLIMAS.
Thursday Sep 24, 2015
Thursday Sep 24, 2015
Note: We had server difficulties with our podcast feed - the podcast is posted now, and is also available on iTunes.
In this edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins focus specifically on El Niño and what we can expect going into this fall and winter, given the "strong" status of this El Niño event.
Part 1: A look at the El Niño signal, including a look back at what happened in 2014 (and why El Niño didn't start when we thought it would), as well as a look forward for what El Niño might mean regionally and globally.
Part 2: A close look at the 97-98 El Niño event, and what happened in the Southwest during the last "strong" El Niño event...can we expect more of the same? What might be different?
Part 3: A look at the El Niño models going into Fall 2015 and Winter 2016 - How certain are we about increased precipitation this winter? When might we see this increase? Any chance for a "boringly average" year, despite the El Niño signal?
We'll be back at the end of September with a Monsoon recap, as well as up to date information regarding El Niño and what this might mean for the Southwest in 2015-2016.
Tuesday Aug 18, 2015
Tuesday Aug 18, 2015
In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the 2015 monsoon so far, with thoughts on how it has fared, and what it looks like for the rest of the monsoon, particularly with El Niño looming on the horizon. In addition to a general summary and recap, they look at spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon, some of the features that drive 'breaks' in the monsoon, and what impact El Niño might be having now, and this winter, especially if it remains a strong event. They also talk about expectations and what makes a "normal" monsoon, as well as how our expectations might be shaping how we perceive any given monsoon event or season.
They cut short the El Niño discussion, as we've planned a special El Niño-centric podcast for Aug 21, to take a deeper look at El Niño so far, what we might expect, and how this (strong) event could compare to other similar events...so stay tuned regarding El Niño.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Tuesday Jul 21, 2015
Tuesday Jul 21, 2015
In a special edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins:
Recap the monsoon so far in 2015, including some of the factors that have affected our season (e.g. tropical storm systems) and the impacts we have seen from the monsoon in 2015
Discuss the features of the monsoon - the "ingredients" that make up the monsoon, and what happens when any of these are disrupted or absent, and
Look forward regarding interactions between the monsoon and the current moderate-to-strong El Niño signal - what this might mean for the rest of the monsoon.
We wanted to put together a special all monsoon podcast (this actually started as a "mini" podcast, but there was just too much to cover!). We'll be back in early August with climate summaries, more on the monsoon, and (of course!) the current state of El Niño and what that means for the Southwest.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Wednesday Jul 01, 2015
Wednesday Jul 01, 2015
In the June 2015 edition of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the month of June, including the quick transition from cool and wet to hot and muggy conditions. The discuss the impact of tropical storms on the region, the early start to this season, and what this may or may not mean in terms of relationship to monsoon patterns. They turn to El Niño, and the impact the El Niño signal may be having on the region, both looking back at the past few months, but in particular looking forward at what this could mean for the southwest in terms of precipitation patterns over the next 12 months.
0:00 Introduction
1:15 June Recap- Temperature, Precipitation, Influence of Tropical Storms, etc.
8:00 Links to the Monsoon - System is setting up - what we've seen so far, and what we can expect moving forward.
15:00 Monsoon and (early arriving) tropical storms, and the impending El Niño event - how big of a role will ENSO play in the monsoon? tropical storms?
22:30 Looking back to the El Niño event of 97-98 - how does this one compare? Could it be even bigger? What would that mean for the Southwest?
26:00 Looking towards the rest of summer, fall and winter - Given persistent El Niño- short term effects (temp & precip) vs. impact on long term trends (like drought).
29:00 Wrapping up and looking forward.
Please note: we are aware of the intermittent audio glitches in the recording, and are working towards a solution. They are brief and shouldn't interfere with the overall podcast, but we apologize for any inconvenience.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
Friday Jun 26, 2015
Friday Jun 26, 2015
We'll have a full episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast next week, but we wanted to take a quick run through the anomalous weather we saw in Mid/Late May and Early June. In this mini-version of the SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan go over the patterns we saw during this (admittedly beautiful) weather, before talking a bit about what this means looking towards the rest of the summer.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan
Michael Crimmins