June 2018 SW Climate Podcast - Dealing with Drought, Monsoon Outlooks, and the Magical Monsoon Mystery Tour

In the June 2018 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to dive into their favorite season. The monsoon is on the horizon, which leads to considerable excitement.  First, they recap temperature and precipitation in the region, and talk about how this connects to the fire season so far. They turn to the monsoon outlooks and forecasts, with a close look at what these forecasts are saying, but how much certainty we have (or don't have) in monsoon seasonal forecasts. Zack then makes his case for the miracle monsoon - a mash up of different months of monsoons past - for what his ideal monsoon would look like (think fantasy football for monsoon monthly totals). They wrap up with a look at the seasonal forecasts - and focus on how ENSO connects to expectations for tropical storms, the monsoon forecast, and seasonal outlooks, even if the signal is relatively weak this time of year. In what is becoming a monthly contest, there's a friendly wager (or 2!) on the line. This month, Zack and Mike report on the results of their May podcast bet, guessing how many days over 100 we'll see in Tucson in May. The 30-year average is 4 - Mike guessed 7, and Zack went big with 9 - tune in to the podcast to hear who won.  For the June podcast, they put their best guess as to the maximum temperature we'll see in Tucson in June.  The record maximum in June is 117 (and the lowest high temp recorded in June was 107) - Mike guessed 109, and Zack guessed 110.  they also put forth their monsoon guesses - with Zack at 5.75" and Mike at 7.5' for the Jun 15 - Sept 30 window.  We'll see!